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Market Update 070108
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html

4:20 pm : Following Friday's sharp market decline, it wasn't a big surprise to see stocks bounce back to some extent Monday. However, market gains were modest at best as encouraging Fed speak, upbeat analyst commentary in the tech sector and M&A activity were barely enough to help ease lingering concerns about Q4 profit growth.

As a reminder, earnings season officially begins tomorrow with Alcoa's (AA 28.51 -0.25) Q4 report after the bell. Current projections call for Q4 2006 operating earnings on the S&P 500 to increase 9-10%. That would be the smallest increase in quarterly earnings expansion since early 2002 and, if results check in at the low of that range, snap 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth.

Helping investors eventually look past such worries and pare morning losses were afternoon comments from Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn. With economic data of late feeding concerns that policy makers won't cut interest rates anytime soon, Kohn's testimony was monitored closely for any evidence to suggest the "soft landing" is still on track.

Even though Kohn warned that a decrease in inflation was "by no means assured," the Fed's most influential central banker after Chairman Ben Bernanke said the "economy appears to be weathering the downturn in housing with limited collateral effects and inflation appears to be easing." Kohn, in a Q&A session, discounted the inverted yield curve's history of preceding recessions. That view offered some relief that contributed to a turnaround in Financials.

The Financials sector, which Briefing.com rates as "Overweight," got an added boost from strength in the brokerage group. Goldman Sachs (GS 203.73 +4.68) was the group's best performer (+2.4%) following reports that it was hired by Gap, Inc. (GPS 20.26 +1.37) to assist the struggling retailer in strategic alternatives that could include a possible sale. Gap spiking as much as 11% intraday was the driving catalyst behind a turnaround in Consumer Discretionary.

Technology was another bright spot for investors. IBM (IBM 98.90 +1.48) was the day's best performing Dow component (+1.5%), closing at a two-year high after it was upgraded at UBS. EMC Corp (EMC 14.08 +0.47) and Network Appliance (NTAP 40.23 +1.16), which were also upgraded at UBS along with semiconductor stocks, provided additional sector support.

After surging more than 2% in early trading and climbing back above $57/bbl, amid colder temps and short covering, oil prices closing lower without the Energy sector sacrificing much in the way of upside leadership was another source of support. Crude for February delivery finished near $56/bbl amid renewed skepticism OPEC will be as aggressive with announced production cuts. DJ30 +25.48 DJTA +0.3% NASDAQ +3.95 SOX +0.6% SP500 +3.13 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1507/1537/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1349/1913/1.51 bln

3:30 pm : A renewed wave of buying within the last 30 minutes lifts the market to new highs. All three indices now rising in synch with each other and logging roughly the same percentage gains (+0.3%) suggest that program trading may have been behind the latest move to the upside. Eight out of 10 sectors are now in positive territory, with Telecom and Utilities -- two of the least influential S&P sectors -- acting as the only sources of weakness going into the close. DJ30 +39.22 NASDAQ +8.83 R2K +0.3% SP500 +3.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1406/1643/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1276/1961/1.24 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks are off their best levels but buyers continue to hold the upper hand. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers now outpace decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The tech-heavy Composite is still turning in the best performance among the majors; but its modest 0.2% gain with an hour left in the trading day amid lingering uncertainty about Q4 earnings growth leaves the door open for sellers to step back in. DJ30 +16.59 NASDAQ +7.11 SP500 +2.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1408/1575/1.46 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1323/1897/1.13 bln

2:30 pm : The indices extend their reach to the upside, getting a boost as Consumer Discretionary becomes the latest sector to turn positive. Gap Inc. (GPS 20.95 +2.06) spiking nearly 11% since the last update, following recent reports that it has hired Goldman Sachs (GS 201.89 +2.84) to assist in strategic alternatives, has been the biggest catalyst behind the sector’s turnaround. However, it is worth noting that the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have run into some resistance near 12425, 1414 and 2445, respectively. Thus, the lack of conviction on the bullish side of the aisle leaves in question whether key technical levels can be breached.DJ30 +25.48 NASDAQ +10.42 SP500 +3.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1399/1593/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1361/1828/1.03 bln

2:00 pm : The major averages are now trading at session highs as stocks finally break out of their afternoon trading range. Evidently, further analysis of Kohn discounting the inverted yield curve's history of preceding recessions, based on current economic conditions, has helped contribute to a turnaround in the rate-sensitive Financials sector. Energy's ability to recently attract buying interest, in the face of falling oil prices is also helping to account for recent recovery efforts that have lifted the Dow into the green for the first time since the open. Exxon Mobil (XOM 73.11 -0.13), which was down nearly 2% earlier, is now off only 0.2%.DJ30 +17.47 NASDAQ +7.36 SP500 +1.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1493/1463/1.23 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1576/1571/928 mln

1:30 pm : The indices remain mired in relatively tight trading ranges, still struggling to find much direction. Fed Vice Chairman Kohn is responding to questions, recently reiterating that the inversion of the yield curve does not mean economic slowdown (it's different this time). Be that as it may, the market has not budged. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold a slim 8-to-7 advantage over decliners while declining issues on the Nasdaq hold a 16-to-13 margin. A split ratio of down to up volumes at the Big Board and the Composite further underscores the uncertainty on the part of both sellers and buyers. DJ30 -16.98 NASDAQ +1.10 SP500 -1.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1607/1337/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1686/1443/860 mln

1:00 pm : So much for Kohn's prepared remarks helping to set a more definitive tone to today's lackluster trading action. Since 12:45 ET, investors have been sifting through the Fed Vice Chairman's testimony. On a positive note, Kohn said "The economy appears to be weathering the downturn in housing with limited collateral effects and inflation appears to be easing with the aid of lower energy prices, well-anchored inflation expectations, and competitive labor and product markets." However, Kohn also noted that "a very gradual decline in the trend rate of inflation continues to be the most likely outcome, but that path is still by no means assured." Bonds have also held relatively steady, with the 10-year note still down just 4 ticks to yield 4.66% and traders now waiting for the Q&A session to begin.DJ30 -18.66 NASDAQ +0.65 SP500 -1.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1606/1327/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1657/1455/780 mln

12:30 pm : Not much has changed since the last update as traders make their way through the New York lunch hour. The market's holding pattern is likely attributed to upcoming Fed speak. Within the next 15 minutes, Fed Vice Chairman Kohn is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook. With economic data of late feeding concerns that the Fed won't cut interest rates anytime soon, Kohn's commentary will be monitored closely since he is a voting Fed official and the next FOMC meeting is just three weeks away.DJ30 -18.12 NASDAQ +2.06 SP500 -1.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1529/1399/950 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1608/1479/710 mln

12:00 pm : The market remains mixed midday as investors weigh another sell-off in oil prices and some upbeat analyst commentary in Tech against the subsequent loss of leadership in the profit engine that is Energy.

Uncertainty heading into earnings season, which officially begins tomorrow with Alcoa's (AA 28.52 -0.24) Q4 report after the bell, is also contributing to some hesitation on the part of buyers. As a reminder, our current projections are for Q4 2006 operating earnings on the S&P 500 to be up 9-10%. That would be the smallest increase in quarterly earnings growth since early 2002 and snap 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth if results check in at the low of that range.

Of the six sectors losing ground, Telecom -- last year's best performer -- is pacing the way lower (-0.7%). Further consolidation throughout the retail space and rising bond yields pressuring rate-sensitive homebuilders are weighing on Consumer Discretionary. A reversal in oil prices earlier in the session has, however, provided an added sense of comfort for tech investors, but in turn removed notable leadership from the Energy sector.

In fact, a 1.2% decline in Exxon Mobil (XOM 72.33 -0.91), which is one of the highest priced stocks on the Dow and the most heavily-weighted stock on the S&P 500, is acting as the biggest constraint behind the blue-chip indices inability to turn positive. Crude for February delivery, which was up more than 2.0% earlier amid colder temps and short covering, is now down 1.7% near $55.40/bbl amid renewed skepticism OPEC will be as aggressive with announced production cuts.

Of the 13 Dow components trading higher, IBM (IBM 98.99 +1.56) is at a two-year high to pace the way after it was upgraded at UBS, which also raised their rating on semiconductor stocks to Equal-Weight from Underweight. EMC Corp (EMC 14.09 +0.48) and Network Appliance (NTAP 40.42 +1.35) were also upgraded while JP Morgan raised quarterly estimates on Apple Computer (AAPL 85.75 +0.70). Those are helping to offset a profit warning from Tellabs (TLAB 10.34 -0.38) and follow-through selling in Motorola (MOT 18.50 -0.44). The latter plunged nearly 8% on Friday after cutting its Q4 guidance. BTK +0.8% DJ30 -15.94 DJTA +0.3% DOT -0.2% NASDAQ +2.27 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.2% SOX +1.3% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -0.65 XOI -0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1537/1334/858 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1668/1399/626 mln

11:30 am : The major averages are now trading in split fashion as further deterioration in the price of oil lends an added source of relief for investors that still believe tech stocks remain undervalued. Crude for February delivery is now down 1.6% near $55.40/bbl, easing some of the concerns tied to the commodity's potential to sustain inflation pressures. High energy prices, but more notably rising wage costs, have contributed to the Fed's ongoing focus on inflation risks -- the main deterrent stalling an interest rate cut that was expected for early 2007 and priced into stocks over the last six months. DJ30 -14.29 NASDAQ +3.73 SP500 -0.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1612/1235/714 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1814/1220/510 mln

11:00 am : After being up as much as 2.5% at $57.72/bbl in early trading, oil prices briefly turning negative was initially enough of a catalyst to help inch the Tech sector back into positive territory within the last 30 minutes, and subsequently lift the Nasdaq into the green. However, even though tech is holding onto the bulk of its modest 0.3% advance, weakness from several other non-tech Nasdaq-listed names (e.g. CELG -1.2%, FAST -2.9%, MNST -1.2%, SPLS -1.1%, URBN -1.4%, WFMI -1.1%, XMSR -1.0%) is acting as an offset. DJ30 -30.72 NASDAQ -0.58 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1662/1114/542 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1755/1204/370 mln

10:30 am : Early recovery efforts are short lived as a renewed wave of selling interest pushes the major averages to fresh session lows. Reports within the last 30 minutes of several building evacuations in Manhattan, attributed to a strange odor, has exacerbated early nervousness. However, even as the market gets wind of the fact that the odor was found to not be harmful, a reversal in Technology is removing some notable leadership. The Energy sector seeing its intraday gains diminish sharply, as oil prices are more than halved and slip back below $57/bbl, is also taking some steam out of the market's only other source of early support.DJ30 -42.13 NASDAQ -9.67 SOX +0.3% SP500 -3.80 XOI +0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1732/968/390 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1647/1237/248 mln

10:00 am : The indices are off their opening lows but continue to languish below the flat line. Seven out of 10 sectors trading in negative territory are acting as the biggest obstacle for the bulls struggling to rekindle some of the leadership behind the second-half rally. Telecom, last year's best performer, is turning in today's worst performance (-0.9%), while the absence of leadership in Financials, as the spread between the 2 and 10-year yield twisting modestly deeper inversion makes rate-sensitive bank stocks less attractive, is also weighing on the proceedings.

Energy is pacing the way higher in sympathy with follow-through buying in oil prices while Tech is holding onto a small advance due largely to some upbeat analyst commentary. UBS raised their rating on semiconductor stocks to Equal-Weight from Underweight and upgraded leaders in the hardware space: IBM (IBM 98.58 +1.16), EMC Corp (EMC 13.96 +0.35) and Network Appliance (NTAP 39.75 +0.68). Apple Computer (AAPL 86.32 +1.27), up 1.5% after JP Morgan raised quarterly estimates, is also helping to offset profit warning from Tellabs (TLAB 10.45 -0.27). DJ30 -24.47 NASDAQ -0.78 SOX +0.6% SP500 -0.86 XOI +0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1499/1054/176 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1671/1016/86 mln

09:40 am : Stocks open modestly lower as follow-through selling from Friday's sharp market decline and a 2.0% surge in oil prices underpin a cautious tone. Crude for February delivery climbing back above $57.50/bbl, amid warm weather forecasts, is offering some upside leadership for the Energy sector (+1.1%); but the commodity's gain is stalling early recovery efforts and feeding concerns about the commodity's inflationary potential. A pickup in inflation during the first half of 2007 remains the biggest risk to our forecast, which calls for only a mid-single digit gain in the S&P 500 as extremely optimistic expectations for interest rates and earnings growth come back down to reality. DJ30 -30.52 NASDAQ -4.21 SP500 -2.38 NASDAQ Vol 82 mln NYSE Vol 46 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. The S&P 500 futures are relatively unchanged since the last comment, but a recent improvement in Nasdaq 100 futures now suggsts a slightly higher open for the tech-heavy Composite. Network Appliance (NTAP) is up nearly 2% in pre-market action after it was upgraded at UBS, which also raised their rating on semiconductor stocks to Equal-Weight from Underweight. Apple Computer (AAPL) is also attracting notable buying interest after JP Morgan raised estimates.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Still little enthusiasm seen in the futures market as current indications suggest equities will start the day on a relatively flat note. The hesitation on the part of both buyers and sellers is also attributed to some uncertainty heading into earnings season, which officially begins after the bell tomorrow with Alcoa's (AA) Q4 report. Current projections are for Q4 2006 operating earnings on the S&P 500 to be up 9-10%, which would be the smallest increase in quarterly earnings growth since early 2002 and snap 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth if results check in at the low of that range.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Still shaping up to be a mixed start for the cash market as futures indications continue to vacillate around the unchanged mark. With economic data of late feeding concerns that the Fed won't cut interest rates anytime soon, the absence of any notable reports this morning is noteworthy; but the lack of data may also be placing more emphasis on a negative preannouncement from Tellabs (TLAB) since Friday's warning from Motorola (MOT) raised valuation concerns throughout the influential tech sector. The market is also awaiting a speech on the economic outlook from Fed Vice Chairman Kohn at 12:45 ET, which will be monitored closely since Kohn is a voting Fed official.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Early indications suggest stocks may kick off the week in sluggish fashion. Tech bellwether IBM (IBM) has been upgraded, but an analyst downgrade on fellow Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT) is keeping early blue-chip buying interest in check. Oil prices rebounding to the tune of 1.5% and climbing back above $57/bbl following last week's sell-off is also contributing to a cautious underlying tone.