TAP Real Estate Technologies Inc (RWAX)

[question_everything]

Thank you for your response.

You are right, they do state World Population right on the slide, but why? The entire world population is clearly not a viable market. All this does it make the opportunities seem much bigger than they are, currently. Also, to your point, it is interesting that Apple pay has more users than PayPal, but think about what Apple does— when you are in their ecosystem they push their products on you. It becomes easier to use Apple Pay vs PayPal because you’re already on an apple device. I’m guessing a lot of those users are spending on apps with a smaller number actually using Apple Pay to pay in stores. Same with Google Pay— those with android phones are much more likely to use Google Pay. To have a similar effect, HUMBL would have to have its own device.

This makes HUMBL much more similar to Venmo or Paypal. Also, PayPal and Venmo might as well be combined since PayPal owns Venmo. The potential advantage HUMBL might have is lower transaction fees, assuming that PayPal doesn’t react by simply lowering their own fees like the large brokerages did to compete with Robinhood.

So, 500 million users in 2 years? Somehow they are going to acquire more customers in 2 years than Apple did in 5 years? Or nearly as many as Venmo/PayPal/ Google Pay have combined? On HUMBLs website, they state that the app can’t even be used in 11 U.S. states, including New York— Huge Market:

“HUMBL will allow you to transfer money across borders for low, transparent fees and exchange rates. You cannot currently use HUMBL if you live in Hawaii, Wyoming, New York, Oregon, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Virginia or North Carolina.”
https://www.humblpay.com/network/overview

Even considering the opportunities in emerging markets, still have to think about the local apps that already exist in those emerging markets. I saw someone mention MercadoPago. Here is more information about them: https://www.emarketer.com/content/how-mercado-pago-is-reshaping-mobile-payments-in-latin-america

I especially think these parts are important:

“Its success in Argentina is also a result of a lack of major competitors in the market—payment services from Apple, Google and Samsung are currently unavailable there—which has given Mercado Pago a FIRST-TO-MARKET ADVANTAGE. According to a July 2019 study from mobile data company Ogury, Mercado Pago was present on 16.5% of Android and iOS mobile devices, a significantly greater share compared with PayPal (0.7%) and Todo Pago (0.5%).

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO MERCADO PAGO’S FUTURE SUCCESS IS LATIN AMERICAS DECADES-LONG LOVE AFFAIR WITH CASH. Even among the region’s Gen Z and millennial adopters of proximity mobile payment technologies, cash is still heavily used, according to a September 2019 report published by Vocalink in association with Kantar.”

I think digital payments are going to become more popular since COVID, but HUMBL has a huge uphill fight. You’re right, they don’t have to get everybody, but we have to be realistic about the extent of who they can attract in the short term. I think their best strategy would be to try and do one thing really well before trying to do everything. In fact, if they focused on just placing merchants/artisans from emerging or non-US markets on their marketplace that would be niche and interesting and draw people, but as of right now, that’s not the case.

Ask yourself, honestly, have YOU bought anything in their current marketplace or used their deal days? If yes, have you told everyone about buying there and what were their thoughts? If not, why not?

So, all that considered, I predict MAYBE 2-3 million users in 2 years, on the upside, by comparing to VENMO: https://www.businessofapps.com/data/venmo-statistics/ . Assuming a working app is released soon.