If you take the crossing day's closing price, It is reduced to 7-15 I agree. But if you are looging at this on an intraday basis and catch it you can improve that by another 5-10 pts.
The problem is the fake outs, like we have seen the last 5 times. <g>
I do agree crossovers are not very reliable.
At this point I think Monday is still down and 1395 ish is a strong possibility.