It wasn't me, though I personally agree that it was likely a hedge position. Based on the timing, I don't think the outcome was yet known.
But on to 2007: For the nearterm, I am looking for the sweet sound of silence. My recollection from the CC is that Stoll expected to get the tox data back by sometime early this month. I'm going to arbitrarily think of it as during 1H of the month. As Gfp has pointed out, even if the tox data is OK, it's impossible to be sure how the FDA will respond, which means it will be unclear how material it is. BUT--if the data is bad, if there are cellular changes across so many dose levels that no window for dose escalation can be expected, it would be pretty clear that the FDA will not raise the dose limitations. That--IMHO--would be material. In other words, clearly bad news will have to be made public very soon. Anything that is ambiguous or better can and will probably be kept quiet, since it is the FDA's reaction that will be material.
My own interpretation will be:No news by Jan 15 means no clear smoking gun, and a much better than even chance of CX717 (80%) being viable for Alzheimer's. The ADHD dosing needs are much higher, for that and other reasons, that is a higher threshold. Silence would bring my ADHD estimate of viability up from 40% to 50%.
Here's hoping for no news--other than perhaps the inevitable financing.
NeuroInvestment