Mostly: Classical

[amarksp]

NatGas-Robry graphs updated...

http://www.amarks.homestead.com/RobryNGModel.html

Frank:
here is a post of interest...

Buckingham Research on nat gas
by: umgower 10/16/03 12:50 pm


"Our Expanded, and More Bullish Thoughts on Gas Storage
1. The 80% to 20% ratio of wellhead or field supplies to storage supplies in meeting winter time gas demand is sacrosanct and key to our more bullish view. During winter approximately 80% of U.S. gas demand is met from flowing wellhead field supplies while only 20% is met from local storage. In other words wellhead or field supplies are four times more important than storage to meeting demand in this period Therefore the condition of U.S. wellhead or field supplies is in our view is paramount to that of storage supplies. We feel that this ratio and the condition of U.S. wellhead supplies have been lost on the “storage bears.”
2. With U.S. wellhead supplies down significantly, there is a chance the U.S. may be “under stored” on natural gas going into 2003/2004’s winter. The “storage bears” skirt the lower and distressed situation of U.S. wellhead gas supplies. Since late 2001, U.S. wellhead supplies have fallen an estimated 7-9% (6-7% in 2002 and 1-2% year-to date 2003). This translates to U.S. wellhead supplies being down an estimated 3.9 to 4.9 Bcfd (billion cubic feet a day) on a base of 55.0 Bcfd over the past 24 months. With 151 days of winter (Nov. to Mar.), U.S. storage levels should therefore be technically built out by an extra 590 to 740 Bcf over what is seen as the norm or adequate (3.1 Tcf) going into winter (Nov. 1) to compensate for this. This can not happen as that would imply storage being filled to 3.7-3.8 Tcf by Nov.1 -- a physical impossibility as U.S underground. storage capacity is estimated to be at most 3.4 Tcf. Presently, U.S. gas storage is on track for a 3.0-3.1 Tcf fill level by Nov.1 2003. Depending on the outcome of 2003/2004’s winter weather, the U.S. could therefore be ‘under-stored”.
3. “Contango” in the NYMEX futures price curve for natural gas has induced extraordinary storage refill rates as of late-- this is completely disregarded by the “storage bears.” The near term shape, and overall level, on the NYMEX futures curve is bullish in our opinion and a much more solid indicator of U.S. supply/demand fundamentals."

also, not reply from rdesroch:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7081371&tid=cwei&sid=708...