Tuesday, September 29, 2020 8:15:35 AM
Two interesting topics, MNK Chapter 11 and politics. They each affect ANIP.
MNK: Chapter 11 became inevitable as soon as the appeals court refused in June to stay the lower court verdict for the $600B judgment for CMS on Medicare overpricing. I wonder why it took that long. There's no point in bending over backwards with unreasonable creditors (CMS and the Opioid litigants) to protect MNK shareholders when the price is flirting with Zero. Go into Chapter 11 reorganization and negotiate from there. For us at ANIP, my fear continues to be that MNK will work out a deal with a stronger hand and give that 3rd party rights for Acthar, but that will take some time. For the next year (at least) Acthar will be in limbo until the CMS appeal is resolved. A game changer for MNK would be to win the appeal from the CMS 600B verdict. I've read the briefs and think the court will conclude that CMS, at best, had the right to second guess Acthar pricing from 2016 on, not from 2012 on. One way or the other, we will continue to compete with Acthar.
Politics: I'm probably in the minority as a pro-Trump guy, but putting that aside and tryng to be objective, I believe the Biden presidency will hurt us. We pay corporate taxes, and paying more taxes under a Biden "reform" will hurt revenue. I also see the Biden presidency as being much weaker on China trade issues, whereas Trump wants drug supply chains moved to the US. They each want lower drug prices, so it's neutral on that front. Overall, I gauge Trump as a better candidate for ANIP shareholders, but by a small margin. ANIP will sink or swim based on Corti approval, for which I have no knowledge.
MNK: Chapter 11 became inevitable as soon as the appeals court refused in June to stay the lower court verdict for the $600B judgment for CMS on Medicare overpricing. I wonder why it took that long. There's no point in bending over backwards with unreasonable creditors (CMS and the Opioid litigants) to protect MNK shareholders when the price is flirting with Zero. Go into Chapter 11 reorganization and negotiate from there. For us at ANIP, my fear continues to be that MNK will work out a deal with a stronger hand and give that 3rd party rights for Acthar, but that will take some time. For the next year (at least) Acthar will be in limbo until the CMS appeal is resolved. A game changer for MNK would be to win the appeal from the CMS 600B verdict. I've read the briefs and think the court will conclude that CMS, at best, had the right to second guess Acthar pricing from 2016 on, not from 2012 on. One way or the other, we will continue to compete with Acthar.
Politics: I'm probably in the minority as a pro-Trump guy, but putting that aside and tryng to be objective, I believe the Biden presidency will hurt us. We pay corporate taxes, and paying more taxes under a Biden "reform" will hurt revenue. I also see the Biden presidency as being much weaker on China trade issues, whereas Trump wants drug supply chains moved to the US. They each want lower drug prices, so it's neutral on that front. Overall, I gauge Trump as a better candidate for ANIP shareholders, but by a small margin. ANIP will sink or swim based on Corti approval, for which I have no knowledge.
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