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Boost for Beijing: pro-China president wins re-election in Kiribati

"China Could Be in Reach of Hawaii After Monday’s Election in Kiribati
""U.S.A. note" - Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-Wen wins landslide in rebuke to China""

This article is more than 2 months old

Taneti Maamau, who switched Kiribati’s allegiance from Taipei to Beijing last year, resoundingly re-elected


President of Kiribati Taneti Maamau addresses the UN general assembly in 2019
Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

Christopher Pala
Tue 23 Jun 2020 12.52 AEST

Last modified on Thu 25 Jun 2020 11.36 AEST

Taneti Maamau was re-elected on Monday to a second term as Kiribati’s president just two months after losing his parliamentary majority over his surprise move to recognise China and cut official relations with Taiwan.

The flip in September last year, four days after an identical switch by Solomon Islands, left Taiwan with only 15 countries that recognise it as a separate country.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/pro-china-president-wins-re-election-in-kiribati

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Taiwan is standing up as an independent nation. But China won't make it easy

ABC Radio National / By Antony Funnell

Posted Thursday 27 February 2020 at 7:00am, updated Thursday 27 February 2020 at 10:32am


Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen's victory at a recent election might signal a new national assertiveness in Taiwan.
(Getty: Clicks Images)

[...]

But Macquarie University's Roger Lee Huang says there's another major factor at play when it comes to any attempt to formally bring Taiwan back into the international fold.

"Clearly Australia is very reliant on the Chinese economy," says Dr Huang, who once worked for the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan.

"With China being Australia's largest trading partner Australia has been very cautious with anything related to China. Taiwan clearly is one of the big issues there."

How did Beijing turn Honiara?
After 36 years of ties, Solomon Islands ended relations with Taiwan. What did it cost Beijing to
win over the Pacific nation's old friend, and what might it mean for stability in the region?
Read more > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-18/solomon-islands-cuts-ties-with-taiwan-in-favour-of-china/11524118

And Beijing has not been reticent in making its displeasure known when any nation attempts to improve its relations with Taipei.

"Taiwan and Australia were actually pretty close to creating a free-trade agreement a couple of years ago and China actively intervened and basically told Australia to stop," Dr Huang says.

Dr Huang says there's also been a concerted campaign by Beijing to remove any reference to Taiwanese sovereignty from world affairs.

At major sporting events, for instance, Taiwanese teams are forbidden to compete under their own name.

Hence, when the Matildas recently played an Olympic qualifier against Taiwan, the Taiwanese national team was euphemistically referred to as "Chinese Taipei".


These Taiwanese footballers compete as the team from "Chinese Taipei". (Getty: Zhizhao Wu)

In 2018 the Chinese Communist Party was also successful in forcing more than 40 international airlines, including Qantas, to change their naming protocols so that Taiwan would be identified as a Chinese territory not an independent nation.

Despite the pressure, Taiwan has survived and thrived.

In the third quarter of 2019, the island nation jumped ahead of both Singapore and South Korea to record an economic growth rate of 2.9 per cent.

Calm under pressure

What's most apparent when visiting Taiwan is how ordinary it is — ordinary in the sense of normal, everyday, functional.

Unlike in mainland China, the police and military don't maintain a high public profile.

During January's national election campaign there was no obvious sense of heightened security.

In fact, campaigning often had a distinctly carnival feeling to it, with candidates using loud hailers, flashing lights and music to attract attention as they drove through the streets of Taipei in open vehicles.


This year's election result was seen a rejection of the Kuomintang's pro-Beijing stance.
(Getty: Alberto Buzzola/LightRocket)

The election marked a significant turning point in Taiwan's democratic development with a record 57 per cent of the electorate voting overwhelmingly for Tsai Ing-wen's Democratic Progressive Party .. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-12/taiwan-president-tsai-ing-wen-woman-china-cant-topple/11860746 , giving her a second term.

In so doing, they rejected the main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), which was widely seen by analysts as being far more pro-Beijing.

"The KMT must convince the general public that it only engages the mainland for the purposes of creating peace, and that it would never sell out Taiwan," senior party figure Chang Ya-chung acknowledged in a radio interview after the event.

A focus on diversification and relationship building

Dr Tsai consistently campaigned on the need for Taiwan to be less reliant on economic relations with mainland China (its major trading partner, despite the tensions) and to broaden its trade arrangements with other Asian democracies like Japan and South Korea.

Professor Frank Cheng-shan Liu, from Taiwan's National Sun Yat-Sen University, says while that proved persuasive with the electorate, voters were also influenced by the solidarity and concern they felt for the pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong .. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/china-replace-top-official-in-hong-kong-as-protests-continue/11841586 .

"Taiwanese people don't ignore the market potential of mainland China, but last summer changed a lot of people's perspectives," he says.


The crackdown on pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong became an election issue in Taiwan.
(Getty: Dale Del La Rey/AFP)

Beijing has long talked about forcing Taiwan to become part of China under a Hong Kong-style "one country, two systems" arrangement, but the heavy-handed way in which protesters were dealt with in Hong Kong made Taiwanese voters uneasy, according to Professor Liu.

"The Hong Kong situation actually shrank the people's positive belief that economic opportunities [with China] are the priority," he says.

January's election also confirmed the existence of a demographic shift in the way ordinary Taiwanese see themselves and their national identity.

Previous generations of Taiwanese, especially those who fled the mainland in the late 1940s to escape Communist rule, still saw themselves as essentially Chinese.


Professor Liu says many young people today identify as "Taiwanese" rather than Chinese. (ABC RN: Antony Funnell)

But young people today, says Professor Liu, now identify overwhelmingly as "Taiwanese" not Chinese.

"President Tsai reflected very well the new consensus to include Taiwan in their identity," he says. "To attract the younger generation's belief that she is the protector of Taiwan."

Beijing's own goal

Dr Huang believes Beijing may have underestimated the intelligence and political skill of the quietly-spoken Dr Tsai, a seasoned campaigner who holds a doctorate from the London School of Economics.

While Beijing regularly threatens war and accuses Taiwan's leadership of being reckless separatists, she has been measured in her criticism of Beijing.

In her election night speech Dr Tsai spoke of the need to make peace, parity, democracy and dialogue the watchwords of all future Beijing-Taipei relations.


In her campaign, Dr Tsai called for "peace, parity, democracy and dialogue with China".(Getty: Carl Court)

"Positive cross-strait interactions founded in mutual respect are the best way to serve our peoples," she said.

"All countries should consider Taiwan a partner, not an issue."

In an interview with the BBC several days after the election she was specifically asked about Beijing's threat of conflict if she and her government move to declare formal independence.

In her response, she turned the proposition on its head.

"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," she replied.

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"We are an independent country already. We have a separate identity
and we're a country of our own. We deserve respect from China."
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The woman China can't topple
China's Government has made little effort to conceal its dislike of Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, and her landslide re-election is a massive blow to Xi Jinping, writes Bill Birtles.
Read more > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-12/taiwan-president-tsai-ing-wen-woman-china-cant-topple/11860746

Dr Huang argues Xi Jinping's aggressive and highly-nationalistic style of politics may now be backfiring.

Broadly speaking, he says, the international community has learnt not to trust the Chinese government, pointing to events in Hong Kong as well as recent concerns over the PRC's handling of the current coronavirus outbreak.

"I think China might have overplayed its hand in the last couple of years," he says.

And he argues this month's visit to Washington by Taiwan's vice-president elect, William Lai Ching-te, could be emblematic of a nascent shift in global sentiment.

"Traditional allies and friends of Taiwan, countries that obviously share similar values, are now finally awakening again," he says.


Xi Jinping's aggressive style of politics has triggered anxiety among some Taiwanese. (Getty: Lintao Zhang)

Although unofficial, Mr Lai attended various events and met with many senior political figures including the powerful Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

And there are other tentative signs of a global warming toward Taiwan.

In response to concerns over the spread of the coronavirus, both the prime ministers of Japan and Canada publicly voiced their support for Taiwan's inclusion in the World Health Organisation.

Professor Liu believes a lot will depend on how skilfully Dr Tsai manages the growing national assertiveness of the Taiwanese people.

Dr Tsai has spoken openly about the pressure she's felt from elements within her party who want her to now go further in asserting the country's sovereignty.


Students wear umbrella hats during National Day celebrations in Taipei. (Getty: Sam Yeh/AFP)

Professor Liu worries that tensions could escalate if politicians on both sides of the Taiwan Strait can't compromise.

But Dr Huang doubts Beijing wants war.

"The party's main concern remains political stability in China," he says.

"If the People's Liberation Army can't deliver a decisive, quick victory this will most likely weaken the CCP's legitimacy within China."

In the US, both sides of politics have reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the Taiwanese military is well armed and prepared for any possible Chinese incursion.

How the wider international community would respond to cross-strait conflict remains unclear.

The Chinese military has tested waters in recent months by sending a jet fighter briefly into Taiwanese airspace and by undertaking two separate naval convoys through the Taiwan Strait.

But it's worth noting that for all her talk of peace, Dr Tsai has been unequivocal in stating her administration's attitude to war.

"Invading Taiwan is something that will be very costly for China," she told the BBC.

"Maintaining a 'status quo' remains our policy. I think that is a very friendly gesture to China."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-27/taiwan-independent-nation-democracy-in-shadow-of-china/11981540