Saturday, September 12, 2020 1:37:18 PM
Hi Rose ...Hope your son in Portland is OK . They may be worse off than us in the Bay Area . Yesterday the air was really unhealthy with low visibility and a light covering of ash everywhere . Todays looks better and tomorrow its supposed to clear.
Re RLFTF and my portfolio. I'm diversified and conservative ...too old at 70 to take a big loss and spend years trying to make it back. So RLFTF and the other Co we were both in have always been less than 10% of my portfolio ...usually closer to 5% . I'm mostly in diversified biotech . tech , housing funds plus a position in AMZN I've had for ages.
Re RLFTF in particular . Several issues ...hopefully minor ...give me pause. In the video I'm linking chk around the 6 min and 11.40 min mark . At higher concentrations RLF-100 loses it's affect in these cell cultures. What I always want to see is a dose response ...higher dose = better response. Now there may be explanations for this but I've yet to see it.
Regarding the IV trial . If we don't get an update this week ...even if its only a PR stating enrollment is complete ...or enrollment is now at 90% for instance I'll not be a happy camper.
Thats the only thing that really matters to me . Who they are "partnering " with for what are simply distractions IMHO at this time. If the IV trial fails ....ie being little better than what we see on steroids ...these partnerships mean little.
Chance of failure . The IV trial was not stopped for futility. So we know RLF-100 is effective ...we just dont know how effective and in which population... with at least 99% certainty ..ie ...P value of .01.
The Chairman has warned everyone that there is a 60-70% probability of FDA approval ...he didn't say 90% chance of approval. .
Dr Javitts has also acknowledged the risk that the open label data may be just " one hell of a placebo effect ".
So both acknowledge this is not a slam dunk
So I'm going into this with the same mindset I had re the patent appeal trial we both followed. Deciding how much I'm willing to risk losing .... and going from there.
Good luck
Kiwi
Re RLFTF and my portfolio. I'm diversified and conservative ...too old at 70 to take a big loss and spend years trying to make it back. So RLFTF and the other Co we were both in have always been less than 10% of my portfolio ...usually closer to 5% . I'm mostly in diversified biotech . tech , housing funds plus a position in AMZN I've had for ages.
Re RLFTF in particular . Several issues ...hopefully minor ...give me pause. In the video I'm linking chk around the 6 min and 11.40 min mark . At higher concentrations RLF-100 loses it's affect in these cell cultures. What I always want to see is a dose response ...higher dose = better response. Now there may be explanations for this but I've yet to see it.
Regarding the IV trial . If we don't get an update this week ...even if its only a PR stating enrollment is complete ...or enrollment is now at 90% for instance I'll not be a happy camper.
Thats the only thing that really matters to me . Who they are "partnering " with for what are simply distractions IMHO at this time. If the IV trial fails ....ie being little better than what we see on steroids ...these partnerships mean little.
Chance of failure . The IV trial was not stopped for futility. So we know RLF-100 is effective ...we just dont know how effective and in which population... with at least 99% certainty ..ie ...P value of .01.
The Chairman has warned everyone that there is a 60-70% probability of FDA approval ...he didn't say 90% chance of approval. .
Dr Javitts has also acknowledged the risk that the open label data may be just " one hell of a placebo effect ".
So both acknowledge this is not a slam dunk
So I'm going into this with the same mindset I had re the patent appeal trial we both followed. Deciding how much I'm willing to risk losing .... and going from there.
Good luck
Kiwi
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