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Saturday, September 05, 2020 6:52:19 PM
California’s ‘brutal’ heat wave is underway, expected to topple all-time records, escalate fire risks
"Spreading Wildfires in California Have Killed 4
At least 62,000 people have been evacuated amid a grueling heat wave, the coronavirus pandemic and air thick with smoke.
Published Aug. 20, 2020 Updated Aug. 21, 2020"
Electricity demand is expected to soar along with temperatures.
Visitors sit on a bench on the pier amid the coronavirus pandemic in Santa Monica, Calif.,
in July. (Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)
By Andrew Freedman September 5, 2020 at 3:26 a.m. GMT+10
With California’s second-, third- and fourth-largest .. https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/1301676897810567168 .. wildfires on record still actively burning, a searing heat wave beginning Friday threatens to set back firefighting efforts, lead to potential rolling electricity service blackouts and smash all-time temperature records throughout the state. Heat warnings and advisories are also in effect for parts of Arizona, Nevada and Oregon.
The heat wave is forecast to be even more intense than an extreme event in mid-August that played a key role in contributing to the massive blazes that have burned 1.5 million acres so far — raising a new term, the “gigafire .. https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/1296880904644698112?s=20 ” — concentrated around the San Francisco Bay area.
Studies show that human-caused climate change is tilting the odds in favor of more frequent, severe and longer lasting heat waves, as well as larger wildfires throughout large parts of the West. New research published last month, for example, shows climate change is tied to more frequent occurrences of extreme-fire-risk days .. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7 .. in parts of California during the fall (meteorologists define the fall as beginning on Sept. 1).
The National Weather Service is not pulling any punches when it comes to the magnitude and health threats posed by the hot weather, calling the next four days “brutally hot.”
National Weather Service's high temperature forecast for Sept. 6, showing widespread temperatures in the 100s in Southern California.
National Weather Service's high temperature forecast for Sept. 6, showing widespread
temperatures in the 100s in Southern California. (Weatherbell.com)
Extreme heat has been the top weather-related killer in the United States during the past 30 years, and combined with poor air quality from nearby fires as well as the novel coronavirus .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_8 .. epidemic, the health threat is particularly acute. Air conditioning provides the best protection from excessive heat but, rather than risking exposure to the virus at cooling shelters, the pandemic may keep people who lack air conditioning at home.
[Hottest season on record: Merciless Phoenix heat blasts by all-time monthly, summer milestones
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/01/phoenix-hottest-summer/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_9]
The two hottest days in Southern California, including Los Angeles, are expected to be Saturday and Sunday, with the potential for some locations to set records for the hottest temperature ever recorded in any month during this period, the Weather Service said in a forecast discussion .. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lox&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD .. posted online.
On Sunday, Weather Service forecasters are expecting an extremely rare number of the heat dome strength to show up over Southern California: 598.
That describes the height in dekameters, or tens of meters, that the halfway point of the atmosphere’s mass is above the surface. When air warms, it expands. When it cools, a volume of air shrinks. An air mass this hot expands a lot, causing a column of air to grow and raising the atmosphere’s halfway point. With this particular system, that level is 5,980 meters — or about 19,000 feet — above the surface. Elsewhere across the western United States, the number will be higher, at or above 6,000 meters, or about 19,700 feet, above the surface.
[Record-crushing heat, fire tornadoes and freak thunderstorms: The weather is wild in the West
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/17/record-crushing-heat-fire-tornadoes-freak-thunderstorms-weather-is-wild-west/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_15]
This 6,000-meter level “represents a threshold that is coincident with record heat over the Western United States,” wrote Ryan Maue, a meteorologist who operates the website weathermodels.com .. https://weathermodels.com/ , in a Twitter message.
Instances of heat domes exceeding this 6,000-meter level used to be rare but have increased dramatically in recent years, a trend some meteorologists link to human-caused climate change.
Maue examined data back to 1958 and found almost all of the high-powered heat domes have occurred since 1983 — with the overwhelming majority of them occurring since 1990.
“The 6000-meter club ‘heat domes’ are certainly becoming more frequent b/c of climate change, now a nearly annual occurrence,” he wrote in a Twitter message.
One of the factors that will heighten temperatures in parts of California this weekend will be gusty, dry offshore winds, which will blow from higher elevations toward the coast, compressing and heating up as it does so. This will cancel out any cooling influence from the typical sea breezes that Los Angeles and nearby areas enjoy.
Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be about 20 degrees above average across the Los Angeles area, with temperatures reaching the triple digits all the way to the coast. Temperatures in the 100s will also encroach on San Francisco, with only minor relief from the typical cooling winds off the Pacific confined to areas right along the immediate shore.
In Sacramento, the NWS is forecasting a high of 102 degrees on Saturday, and 110 on Sunday.
NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngeles
The heat is about to begin! High temps over 100 are
expected across the valleys today with mid 80s to 90s over
the inland coast. It's only going to get hotter through the
weekend so be prepared! #CAwx #LAheat #heatwave
10:47 PM · Sep 4, 2020
128 81 people are Tweeting about this
Wildfire woes to continue
Offshore winds would also raise wildfire risks, and on Monday, strong winds in inland areas out of the north could bring critical wildfire weather conditions. While the intense heat may only last through Monday in coastal areas, valley locations and inland reaches of Southern California are still predicted to see scorching heat and high fire danger well into the week next week.
The wildfire threat may also spike early next week in Northern California, with the Weather Service in San Francisco warning of a “possible early season offshore wind event” Monday night into Tuesday morning that would also push smoke from ongoing fires back into the Bay Area. The smoke may keep temperatures slightly cooler in some areas by absorbing some of the incoming solar radiation, the Weather Service said.
The weather pattern early next week may feature a dip or trough in the jet stream over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region, with snow falling across Colorado. Such a pattern typically sets up in October, causing offshore wind events that can cause some of California’s worst wildfire outbreaks.
A fire-weather watch is in effect across areas of Northern California from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for critical fire weather conditions because of extremely low humidity and gusty winds of up to 50 mph.
Forecasters are also warily watching this weather pattern for enhancing ongoing fire activity in Northern California and causing offshore Santa Ana winds to kick in across Southern California.
An orange glow fills the sky behind a vineyard as smoke flows from the LNU Lightning Complex
fire in Sonoma County, Calif., on Aug. 22. (Philip Pacheco/Bloomberg News)
One way to look at how volatile the fire weather conditions are in California, and how the upcoming heat wave could put parts of the state back in peril, is through a metric that effectively measures the thirst of the atmosphere, known as the Evaporative Demand Drought Index.
This index shows the ability of the atmosphere to dry out the landscape through high temperatures, clear skies, low humidity levels and other ways. It is a reliable indicator for fire danger — the higher the index, the greater the fire threat.
This summer, the EDDI has consistently been in its highest drought category, E4, over parts of California, a level that can be expected only 2 percent of the time, based on records going back to 1980. Now, with a potentially historic heat wave descending this weekend over California and the Pacific Northwest, those drying effects will only intensify, pulling more moisture from plants and soils.
Scientists with the U.S. Forest Service and Cal Fire, which is California’s state firefighting agency, have seen evidence of high stress on vegetation in the past few months. Conditions have reached record dry levels periodically and then recovered during cooler, more humid intervals.
Shrubs and tree canopies, for example, are running drier this summer than they were in 2018, California’s worst .. https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/11397/fires-acres-all-agencies-thru-2018.pdf .. fire season on record when multiple megafires burned nearly 2 million acres. That level of dryness in live trees allows fires to spread into canopies, burning hotter with “extreme fire behavior” that can be impossible for firefighters to control.
The mid-August heat wave resulted in rolling blackouts for parts of the state due in part to a lack of planning .. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/business/energy-environment/california-blackout-electric-grid.html .. for the spike in electricity demand. The California Independent System Operator (ISO), which helps oversee the operation of the electric grid in the state, has issued a “Flex Alert” for the state starting Saturday and lasting through Monday, calling on residents to take steps to conserve power.
“Conservation can lower demand and avoid further actions, including outages, and lessen the duration of possible power interruptions,” the ISO stated.
Diana Leonard, Jason Samenow and Matthew Cappucci contributed to this report.
84 Comments - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/04/california-heat-wave-fires/
"Spreading Wildfires in California Have Killed 4
At least 62,000 people have been evacuated amid a grueling heat wave, the coronavirus pandemic and air thick with smoke.
Published Aug. 20, 2020 Updated Aug. 21, 2020"
Electricity demand is expected to soar along with temperatures.
Visitors sit on a bench on the pier amid the coronavirus pandemic in Santa Monica, Calif.,
in July. (Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)
By Andrew Freedman September 5, 2020 at 3:26 a.m. GMT+10
With California’s second-, third- and fourth-largest .. https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/1301676897810567168 .. wildfires on record still actively burning, a searing heat wave beginning Friday threatens to set back firefighting efforts, lead to potential rolling electricity service blackouts and smash all-time temperature records throughout the state. Heat warnings and advisories are also in effect for parts of Arizona, Nevada and Oregon.
The heat wave is forecast to be even more intense than an extreme event in mid-August that played a key role in contributing to the massive blazes that have burned 1.5 million acres so far — raising a new term, the “gigafire .. https://twitter.com/stuartpalley/status/1296880904644698112?s=20 ” — concentrated around the San Francisco Bay area.
Studies show that human-caused climate change is tilting the odds in favor of more frequent, severe and longer lasting heat waves, as well as larger wildfires throughout large parts of the West. New research published last month, for example, shows climate change is tied to more frequent occurrences of extreme-fire-risk days .. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7 .. in parts of California during the fall (meteorologists define the fall as beginning on Sept. 1).
The National Weather Service is not pulling any punches when it comes to the magnitude and health threats posed by the hot weather, calling the next four days “brutally hot.”
National Weather Service's high temperature forecast for Sept. 6, showing widespread temperatures in the 100s in Southern California.
National Weather Service's high temperature forecast for Sept. 6, showing widespread
temperatures in the 100s in Southern California. (Weatherbell.com)
Extreme heat has been the top weather-related killer in the United States during the past 30 years, and combined with poor air quality from nearby fires as well as the novel coronavirus .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/28/what-you-need-know-about-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_8 .. epidemic, the health threat is particularly acute. Air conditioning provides the best protection from excessive heat but, rather than risking exposure to the virus at cooling shelters, the pandemic may keep people who lack air conditioning at home.
[Hottest season on record: Merciless Phoenix heat blasts by all-time monthly, summer milestones
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/01/phoenix-hottest-summer/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_9]
The two hottest days in Southern California, including Los Angeles, are expected to be Saturday and Sunday, with the potential for some locations to set records for the hottest temperature ever recorded in any month during this period, the Weather Service said in a forecast discussion .. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lox&issuedby=LOX&product=AFD .. posted online.
On Sunday, Weather Service forecasters are expecting an extremely rare number of the heat dome strength to show up over Southern California: 598.
That describes the height in dekameters, or tens of meters, that the halfway point of the atmosphere’s mass is above the surface. When air warms, it expands. When it cools, a volume of air shrinks. An air mass this hot expands a lot, causing a column of air to grow and raising the atmosphere’s halfway point. With this particular system, that level is 5,980 meters — or about 19,000 feet — above the surface. Elsewhere across the western United States, the number will be higher, at or above 6,000 meters, or about 19,700 feet, above the surface.
[Record-crushing heat, fire tornadoes and freak thunderstorms: The weather is wild in the West
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/17/record-crushing-heat-fire-tornadoes-freak-thunderstorms-weather-is-wild-west/?itid=lk_interstitial_manual_15]
This 6,000-meter level “represents a threshold that is coincident with record heat over the Western United States,” wrote Ryan Maue, a meteorologist who operates the website weathermodels.com .. https://weathermodels.com/ , in a Twitter message.
Instances of heat domes exceeding this 6,000-meter level used to be rare but have increased dramatically in recent years, a trend some meteorologists link to human-caused climate change.
Maue examined data back to 1958 and found almost all of the high-powered heat domes have occurred since 1983 — with the overwhelming majority of them occurring since 1990.
“The 6000-meter club ‘heat domes’ are certainly becoming more frequent b/c of climate change, now a nearly annual occurrence,” he wrote in a Twitter message.
One of the factors that will heighten temperatures in parts of California this weekend will be gusty, dry offshore winds, which will blow from higher elevations toward the coast, compressing and heating up as it does so. This will cancel out any cooling influence from the typical sea breezes that Los Angeles and nearby areas enjoy.
Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be about 20 degrees above average across the Los Angeles area, with temperatures reaching the triple digits all the way to the coast. Temperatures in the 100s will also encroach on San Francisco, with only minor relief from the typical cooling winds off the Pacific confined to areas right along the immediate shore.
In Sacramento, the NWS is forecasting a high of 102 degrees on Saturday, and 110 on Sunday.
NWS Los Angeles
@NWSLosAngeles
The heat is about to begin! High temps over 100 are
expected across the valleys today with mid 80s to 90s over
the inland coast. It's only going to get hotter through the
weekend so be prepared! #CAwx #LAheat #heatwave
10:47 PM · Sep 4, 2020
128 81 people are Tweeting about this
Wildfire woes to continue
Offshore winds would also raise wildfire risks, and on Monday, strong winds in inland areas out of the north could bring critical wildfire weather conditions. While the intense heat may only last through Monday in coastal areas, valley locations and inland reaches of Southern California are still predicted to see scorching heat and high fire danger well into the week next week.
The wildfire threat may also spike early next week in Northern California, with the Weather Service in San Francisco warning of a “possible early season offshore wind event” Monday night into Tuesday morning that would also push smoke from ongoing fires back into the Bay Area. The smoke may keep temperatures slightly cooler in some areas by absorbing some of the incoming solar radiation, the Weather Service said.
The weather pattern early next week may feature a dip or trough in the jet stream over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region, with snow falling across Colorado. Such a pattern typically sets up in October, causing offshore wind events that can cause some of California’s worst wildfire outbreaks.
A fire-weather watch is in effect across areas of Northern California from Monday evening through Wednesday morning for critical fire weather conditions because of extremely low humidity and gusty winds of up to 50 mph.
Forecasters are also warily watching this weather pattern for enhancing ongoing fire activity in Northern California and causing offshore Santa Ana winds to kick in across Southern California.
An orange glow fills the sky behind a vineyard as smoke flows from the LNU Lightning Complex
fire in Sonoma County, Calif., on Aug. 22. (Philip Pacheco/Bloomberg News)
One way to look at how volatile the fire weather conditions are in California, and how the upcoming heat wave could put parts of the state back in peril, is through a metric that effectively measures the thirst of the atmosphere, known as the Evaporative Demand Drought Index.
This index shows the ability of the atmosphere to dry out the landscape through high temperatures, clear skies, low humidity levels and other ways. It is a reliable indicator for fire danger — the higher the index, the greater the fire threat.
This summer, the EDDI has consistently been in its highest drought category, E4, over parts of California, a level that can be expected only 2 percent of the time, based on records going back to 1980. Now, with a potentially historic heat wave descending this weekend over California and the Pacific Northwest, those drying effects will only intensify, pulling more moisture from plants and soils.
Scientists with the U.S. Forest Service and Cal Fire, which is California’s state firefighting agency, have seen evidence of high stress on vegetation in the past few months. Conditions have reached record dry levels periodically and then recovered during cooler, more humid intervals.
Shrubs and tree canopies, for example, are running drier this summer than they were in 2018, California’s worst .. https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/11397/fires-acres-all-agencies-thru-2018.pdf .. fire season on record when multiple megafires burned nearly 2 million acres. That level of dryness in live trees allows fires to spread into canopies, burning hotter with “extreme fire behavior” that can be impossible for firefighters to control.
The mid-August heat wave resulted in rolling blackouts for parts of the state due in part to a lack of planning .. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/business/energy-environment/california-blackout-electric-grid.html .. for the spike in electricity demand. The California Independent System Operator (ISO), which helps oversee the operation of the electric grid in the state, has issued a “Flex Alert” for the state starting Saturday and lasting through Monday, calling on residents to take steps to conserve power.
“Conservation can lower demand and avoid further actions, including outages, and lessen the duration of possible power interruptions,” the ISO stated.
Diana Leonard, Jason Samenow and Matthew Cappucci contributed to this report.
84 Comments - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/04/california-heat-wave-fires/
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