I see the big picture here as follows, excluding all of the lawsuits.
1) First wave of core capital will come fairly cheaply in a private placement. I see Buffett and another group or two vieing for those initial shares, as they smell out the huge profits that will be made from that purchase inside of 2-3 years.
2) Next will come release from conservatorship with consent decree, followed by the GSE's setting up terms for a public placement at significantly higher prices due to the severely reduced risk determined by
A) The money put up in initial private placement
B) The release from conservatorship
C) By this point (next spring), almost complete subsided risks from coronavirus due to a combination of herd immunity, therapeutics, and new vaccines.
This will open the door of attractiveness for major competition for the public placement to yield the significantly higher share prices in that placement.
As for lawsuits, I still think the settlement might look something like what has been noted before; warrants cancelled, no overpayment returned, but a prepaid asset granted for most or all of that overpayment to the GSE's, with corresponding offset to core capital towards the FHFA standards set.
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