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Wednesday, 05/27/2020 10:14:57 PM

Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:14:57 PM

Post# of 65303
Today’s shareholder letter still leaves a lot of questions unanswered

The most important ones for me are:

1) What is the size of the float?

The O/S was stated to be 42M shares, but how many of those are restricted?

Is the float 1.6M shares, which is where it would wind up after a 1:300 R/S?


2) How did the O/S count wind up at 42M?

David Harkham’s control block of 33M shares has been restricted for many years

Were those 33M shares protected from the R/S?

If so, then there are only 9M shares (total up to 42M) remaining to be accounted for

Out of those 9M, the float would make up 1.6M

Now there are only 7.4M shares remaining to be accounted for

Include Medico’s shares and the lost certificate shares that can’t be traded and we are now around 6.5M shares remaining to be accounted for

Has a financing deal been signed but not yet filed — if so, how many shares has that contributed to the O/S?

Are these shares restricted from sale for 6 months? 12 months?

Has an acquisition been made but not yet filed — if so, how many shares has that contributed to the O/S?

Are these shares restricted from sale for 6 months? 12 months?


3) Where are the filings?

Filings are the method through which important company events are communicated

A shareholder letter is not a filing — today’s letter is missing all of the information needed to answer the above questions


I was very surprised and pretty disappointed when the news of the R/S came out last week, but willing to wait for Medico to explain the rationale behind it

Without knowing the size of the float and the exact composition of the O/S, I still feel left in the dark

Filings are needed ASAP

That’s the only way to get the answers to these questions


— — —


Everybody has his/her own way of picking stocks

I like VATE in 2020 because I firmly believe that a CBD Mania is coming shortly — The SAFE Banking Act is attached to the House’s HEROES Act, which is the latest Covid-19 economic stimulus bill — it already passed the House 2 weeks ago and is now sitting in front of the Senate

Hemp Banking is part of The SAFE Banking Act, and Hemp Banking is the legislative vehicle to which Mitch can attach CBD Legalization in Beverages/Foods/Supplements and Enforcement Discretion for CBD Products

Listen to Jonathan Miller, the hemp lobbyist closest to Mitch, talk about it here:

On April 8th 2020, Jonathan Miller announced that there will be a strong push to include CBD Legalization in Foods/Beverages/Supplements, along with Hemp Banking, in an amendment (bypassing the need for committee and floor votes) to the next Covid-19 Economic Stimulus Bill

12:30-17:10 provides the most important information and is well worth a listen

From 15:15-15:53 Mr. Miller states the real crux of this situation:

“FDA relief for our industry directly deals with the economic recovery from this Covid-19 crisis.
If we can get FDA relief, it will unleash the CBD business, allow for sales of many more products without this cloud, we think the big box stores will allow these sales.
We think Cola companies and other big food companies will want to put CBD in their products, which most importantly creates new markets for hemp farmers.
We are really hopeful that Congress will agree that this is part of the economic recovery and that they will have an amendment to the Stimulus Four package to require the FDA to regulate CBD and to unleash this industry and the economic boost to the economy that would happen.”

https://www.facebook.com/2043552242529673/videos/517338882233397/

The prospects of mania development are all probabilistic — there are no absolute certainties in the timing of the upcoming mania because there is no specific date attached to it

It was easy to predict the exact timing of the cannabis manias in 2016 and 2018 because each one had a date associated with a huge catalyst — the November election in 2016 and California starting sales of recreational MJ on January, 1 2018

I’m convinced the next cannabis mania will be a CBD Legalization Mania

The size of the CBD sector is also a lot smaller than the MJ sector, so there is going to be a lot of cannabis money flowing into far fewer stocks

Since there is no date attached to this massive catalyst, it’s been a huge challenge to pin down the exact timing

The upcoming economic stimulus bill, with The SAFE Banking Act already attached to the House’s version, and Mitch/Trump running in very close elections in the setting of a historic economic crisis, provides us with the single best chance of CBD Mania induction we’ve seen thus far


— — —


The 2014 Cannabis Mania was so ridiculous that it isn’t even worth referencing when thinking about what a CBD Mania in 2020 could potentially look like

The last uninterrupted sector-wide Cannabis Mania in America had 2 separate phases (The 2018 Cannabis Mania lasted only 2 weeks due to Jeff Sessions’ rescission of the Cole Memo, which abruptly ended the mania)

The 1st phase of the mania took place between September - November 2016 and was ended by Trump’s election

The 2nd phase of the mania took place between January - February 2017 and was ended by remarks made by Sean Spicer

I use a categorical approach to stockpicking in the cannabis sector, because that has generated the best returns during all of the cannabis manias we have seen

During the 1st phase of The 2016 Cannabis Mania, I chose 3 stocks that returned 2040%, 2370% and 5600% — these % gains returns were fully documented

Now here’s the thing — there was nothing particularly special about any of those 3 stocks

I made a prediction about what specific category and subcategory of stocks would be the most popular within the many categories and subcategories of MJ stocks

And I picked the right category, the right subcategory and the top 3 stocks within that category

I utilized some pretty specific factors to hone in on my selections, but there was nothing special about the company performance of any of those stocks

The biggest % gainer had far less revenue and revenue growth than VATE does now

The 2nd phase of that mania was even crazier

2 particular cannabis stocks went absolutely to the moon

CNBX went from $.04 to $7

OWCP went from $.006 to $3

So was there anything particularly special about those 2 stocks?

Not at all

They were simply in the right category — cannabinoid pharmaceutical stocks


— — —


The unexpected news last week and the shareholder letter this morning leave several important questions unanswered

Most importantly, what is the size of the float?

VATE has zero convertible debt and there had been no meaningful dilution to the O/S and Float during the past 8 months

I was very excited about VATE’s potential to run in a CBD Legalization Mania

VATE had the smallest float (480M) of all the OTC CBD Beverage stocks that currently sell CBD beverages

#1 in the float size category

VATE had no convertible debt

Tied for #1 in the convertible debt (dilution potential) category

VATE was the only CBD Coffee and CBD Tea stock in America — the other OTC CBD Beverage stocks all sell CBD Water

That’s the most important #1 in any category to me — anybody who wants to invest in CBD Coffee and CBD Tea must buy VATE — there is only 1 choice

Anybody who wants to invest in CBD Water has 5 different choices on the OTC

Buying the only stock in a very popular category is a no-brainer after legalization

VATE was an absolute category killer in a sector where being a category killer has been predictive of massive % gains in cannabis manias


— — —


None of VATE’s categorical advantages has changed in the past week

It already had the smallest float, but now it has the smallest float by an extremely wide margin

What has changed in the past week is the market’s perception of Medico, his transparency and trustworthiness

I’m convinced that the CBD Beverage category is going to deliver the best % gain returns in any CBD Legalization Mania

And I’m convinced that CBD Coffee and CBD Tea are going to be popular choices of CBD Beverage consumers and CBD Beverage investors and I’d really like to maintain investment exposure to that subcategory

I now have reservations about Medico that have arisen as a result of recent events

I’m feeling a complicated mixture of emotions — shock, disappointment and confusion

From my categorical perspective, VATE had been a low risk/high reward stock for 2020

In light of recent events, I still believe VATE has a high categorical potential for reward; however, it is no longer a low risk stock

Exactly how to quantitate that risk is dependent on filings that will shed light on some of the most important metrics that drive stock price movement — float size and potential for near-term dilution

Until those filings are submitted, the change in the reward/risk ratio is virtually impossible to compute


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