Risk reward
Accepting that we don't know, we can only think about this in terms of risk reward. If the beliefs of the longs are true this goes to double digits by the end of the year, maybe much higher. If the shorts are right it goes to zero by the end of the year, but no lower. So, forty cent risk, and ten dollar reward. Call it fifty cents for ease of computation, and that's a 20 to one risk reward. That means if you take this risk reward 20 times, without knowing anything more, you at least break even.
Now, what is the probability of the stock getting to ten or higher. Well, we got Covid kits which should do it by themselves, but wait, there's more. If you act right now, we've got Endo, could make it 10 by itself, but wait, there's more. If you act by the end of this commercial as an extra special bonus we have Artguide and Fertility tests, yep, 10 by themselves. But wait, as a special for you there's stem cells which have been making money over the last three years. But wait, there's even more... if you call on your cell phone using voice dial, you get Atrin, a possible cancer treatment.
Now, how much will each of these be worth? Well to justify a 10 share price you would need EPS of about 50 cents a share or may be less for a fast growing company. So, with outstanding shares of around 300 million that's 150 million profit. So, which of these products would make 150 million profit. Covid19 antibody tests? check. Endo? check. Artguide and Fertility testing? check. Stem cells? probably check. Atrin, if successful trials, check.
So you've got five bites at the apple any one of which would give you a 10 dollar share price. So, if you throw that in, you have one unbelievable risk reward.
Is it a sure thing? No, but the closest I've seen.
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