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Thursday, May 07, 2020 11:03:37 PM
A snapshot of coronavirus in the U.S.: A high plateau of new cases portends more spread
The bottom paragraph echoes what all sensible people in America, and here, are saying.
By Andrew Joseph @DrewQJoseph
May 7, 2020
With links
Medical workers take in patients outside a special coronavirus area at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
For all the talk of a second wave of coronavirus cases hitting the United States this fall, one consideration is often lost: The country is still in the throes of the first wave of this pandemic.
Even as roughly half of states start to peek out from under their lockdowns, the United States confirmed more than 25,000 new Covid-19 infections nearly every day in April, a clip that does not seem to be dropping in May, according to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker. More than 1,000 people have died each day since April 2. On some days, including both Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the toll topped 2,000.
So if the curve has been flattened somewhat, it is not coming down.
Some states and cities are reporting hints of progress. In Massachusetts, hospitalizations have dropped, even if the number of deaths has not yet buckled. Newly confirmed cases are down in New York City. The Bay Area’s early shelter-in-place appears to have staved off the worst impacts of the crisis for now, and ensuing policies elsewhere helped minimize the pain.
But cases are increasing in other areas, according to the tracker, a partnership between STAT and Applied XL, a Newlab Venture Studio company, that compiles data from 15 sources. Texas has reported more new cases in each of the past few days than it typically did in mid-April. Cases are accelerating in Kansas. Outbreaks continue to build in prisons and meat processing plants.
There have been more than 1.2 million confirmed Covid-19 infections in the United States; experts say the true number could be 10 times that. But even if those people are immune from a second infection for some amount of time — which scientists still need to confirm — that still leaves the vast majority of Americans susceptible to contracting the virus.
The plateau in case counts at such a high level nationally also means there is still lots of virus lurking around. Infections have remained stubbornly elevated even as, in most places, people who could stay home and avoid contact with others generally have.
Now we will get a glimpse of what happens as people start to move around more.
About 30 states have started to ease the lockdown restrictions imposed to suffocate the spread of the virus, or will soon. What’s allowed and when varies by state, but most governors have outlined gradual approaches, with limited capacities at restaurants, malls, and theaters. They have the backing of President Trump, even though many don’t meet the White House’s recommended milestones for when it would be safe to emerge from stay-at-home policies, one of which was a decline in cases for 14 days.
Support STAT: If you value our coronavirus coverage, please consider making a one-time contribution to support our journalism.
It’s an attempt by governors to balance out the economic, social, and psychological impact of shutdowns, which have also caused lasting effects on people’s health and well-being. But it’s also an experiment that will examine whether phased reopenings can occur without setting off an explosion in cases — and overwhelming health care systems.
“I’m somewhat sympathetic, as I think everyone is, to the impulse to try to open up,” Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said last week. But, he added, “I don’t think at this point that it’s good public health advice to reopen in most parts of the United States, because cases numbers are high, and testing is poor. And that’s where we were a long time ago.”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/07/snapshot-coronavirus-plateau-spread/
The bottom paragraph echoes what all sensible people in America, and here, are saying.
By Andrew Joseph @DrewQJoseph
May 7, 2020
With links
Medical workers take in patients outside a special coronavirus area at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. Spencer Platt/Getty Images
For all the talk of a second wave of coronavirus cases hitting the United States this fall, one consideration is often lost: The country is still in the throes of the first wave of this pandemic.
Even as roughly half of states start to peek out from under their lockdowns, the United States confirmed more than 25,000 new Covid-19 infections nearly every day in April, a clip that does not seem to be dropping in May, according to STAT’s Covid-19 Tracker. More than 1,000 people have died each day since April 2. On some days, including both Tuesday and Wednesday this week, the toll topped 2,000.
So if the curve has been flattened somewhat, it is not coming down.
Some states and cities are reporting hints of progress. In Massachusetts, hospitalizations have dropped, even if the number of deaths has not yet buckled. Newly confirmed cases are down in New York City. The Bay Area’s early shelter-in-place appears to have staved off the worst impacts of the crisis for now, and ensuing policies elsewhere helped minimize the pain.
But cases are increasing in other areas, according to the tracker, a partnership between STAT and Applied XL, a Newlab Venture Studio company, that compiles data from 15 sources. Texas has reported more new cases in each of the past few days than it typically did in mid-April. Cases are accelerating in Kansas. Outbreaks continue to build in prisons and meat processing plants.
There have been more than 1.2 million confirmed Covid-19 infections in the United States; experts say the true number could be 10 times that. But even if those people are immune from a second infection for some amount of time — which scientists still need to confirm — that still leaves the vast majority of Americans susceptible to contracting the virus.
The plateau in case counts at such a high level nationally also means there is still lots of virus lurking around. Infections have remained stubbornly elevated even as, in most places, people who could stay home and avoid contact with others generally have.
Now we will get a glimpse of what happens as people start to move around more.
About 30 states have started to ease the lockdown restrictions imposed to suffocate the spread of the virus, or will soon. What’s allowed and when varies by state, but most governors have outlined gradual approaches, with limited capacities at restaurants, malls, and theaters. They have the backing of President Trump, even though many don’t meet the White House’s recommended milestones for when it would be safe to emerge from stay-at-home policies, one of which was a decline in cases for 14 days.
Support STAT: If you value our coronavirus coverage, please consider making a one-time contribution to support our journalism.
It’s an attempt by governors to balance out the economic, social, and psychological impact of shutdowns, which have also caused lasting effects on people’s health and well-being. But it’s also an experiment that will examine whether phased reopenings can occur without setting off an explosion in cases — and overwhelming health care systems.
“I’m somewhat sympathetic, as I think everyone is, to the impulse to try to open up,” Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said last week. But, he added, “I don’t think at this point that it’s good public health advice to reopen in most parts of the United States, because cases numbers are high, and testing is poor. And that’s where we were a long time ago.”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/07/snapshot-coronavirus-plateau-spread/
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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