Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

> VRTX – With today's news, what do you think would be a good entry point on VRTX? I have always viewed it a good biotech; however, based on its current market cap it appears fully valued/overvalued, IMHO.<

The valuation is too rich for me. I want to see the first SVR12 data from PROVE-1, which will be out in 1Q07.

Why was PCR-negativity 100% at 4 weeks but “only” 88% at 12 weeks? Viral resistance that was not quashed by Pegasys could be rearing its head.

Then there are the unexpected side effects with rash and GI stuff leading to a 9% dropout rate in the first 12 weeks. Extrapolate that to 24 weeks of VX-950 therapy and you could be talking about serious attrition.

If SVR12 and SVR rates come in below Wall Street’s still sky-high expectations, VRTX could be trading back in the teens. I’ll pass for now. Regards, Dew