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Thursday, 04/23/2020 9:22:50 AM

Thursday, April 23, 2020 9:22:50 AM

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KYN's dividend is in the +30% range. At that range, even if KYN's stock price didn't move up, you would still double your money in three years. However, with oil's price rising from these historic low's, KYN's stock price will rise by 200% to 300% and you will make a profit of several hundred percent. In addition to that, every three years you will make back the equivalent of your original investment just in dividends alone.

But, will oil prices recover?

The year started off in a bullish fashion with Brent Crude hitting highs over $70 following Libya's production loss. Those highs gave way to progressive selling with the markets ignoring oil's bullish developments, and focusing on the impact of COVID-19.

The OPEC meeting in March failed to deliver what the markets wanted with some deep quarrels between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The news at the time suggested that Russia was reluctant to cut more production, and Saudi Arabia, tired of shouldering the burden of deep cuts, decided to show Russia who really is the boss.

They were at the time fighting over 1-2 million barrels per day of cuts. As we shall see in the demand side analysis, the problems turned out to be substantially larger. However, coronavirus 2019, COVID-19, halted driving world wide, and the demand for oil dropped by over 10 million barrels a day.

Once that happened, Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on a 10 million barrel a day cut in production. That is now a drop in the barrel. World wide demand in April is estimated to be 29 million barrels a day lower than a year ago. Once COVID-19 is over, people will start driving again and the oil surplus will be drawn down.

Once COVID-19 is past, now that they have finally managed to agree on an oil cut to buoy oil prices, something they have actually wanted to do, they will probably keep up a substantial oil cut. This will buoy oil prices. In fact pre-market oil this morning is up over 20%.
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