Any model I seen has been a joke. I believe that most modelers are actually retired weathermen and sell-side analysts.
The models started out predicting what would happen if no steps were taken to mitigate coronavirus spread. Serious steps were taken to limit the spread and have done that so the models were adjusted. Now scientists are trying to get a handle on how wide spread the virus is so reasonable estimates of how many tests might be needed are being made. Don't be so dismissive of the difficulties in making the estimates are.