Biotech Values

[iwfal]

think people should just stop trying to interpret data from a few days short period of time and then generalize. This is pretty much true on ALL fronts of COVID-19, data are instantaneous, they aren’t vetted and follow-up are inadequate thus those trying to make quick conclusions have been consistently wrong.

In this particular case large portion of new confirmed cases are asymptomatic at the time of testing doesn’t mean they’ll stay asymptomatic. Look at Diamond Princess, many asymptomatic at the time of tested positive became symptomatic over time due to long incubation period. You need follow-up data from these subjects after testing few countries provide.

Yep. I haven’t lived thru as much as you in this regard, but can still vouch for a strong tendency in this way. Eg today the press was atwitter saying the Iceland study showed 50% asymptomatic. But one of the Iceland team explicitly explained that this was inaccurate since it just meant asymptomatic at the time of the test.

And I’ll say again, multiple touted studies showing much more asymptomatic based upon a viral test have all reverted to around 20% when followup happened. Further, that’s about the same as other Corona viruses in humans. So the default, strong priors, should probably be near 20%.