Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

GDP damage it should be noted is not caused by the virus. That damage arises from prevention
methods, such as travel restrictions, event cancellations and interruption to supply chains, used.

The Uni is a respected one, just i'd like to know how they got from 1 million to 15 million.

"But even in the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven, which the paper acknowledged were not definitive — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million. They modeled their estimates on the Hong Kong flu pandemic, an outbreak in 1968-1969 that is estimated to have killed about 1 million people."

Since 1968 the world population has a bit more than doubled ..
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/ .

And the mortality rate of this coronavirus could be only roughly the same as that for the Hong Kong flu

In comparison to other pandemics, the Hong Kong flu yielded a low death rate, with a case-fatality ratio below 0.5% making it a category 2 disease on the Pandemic Severity Index. The pandemic infected an estimated 500,000 Hong Kong residents, 15% of the population. In the United States, approximately 33,800 people died.
https://www.sinobiological.com/1968-influenza-pandemic-hong-kong-flu-a-5754.html