Recent MDS data and what it means for Onconova?
Rating: OUTPERFORM from Noble Financial
Friday, December 27, 2019
New data in MDS. Onconova presented data at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) annual meeting in December. The data update included genomic profiling from INSPIRE study patients, who suffer from higher risk myelodysplastic syndrome (HR-MDS). We don’t expect any value generating data until topline readout from INSPIRE study in 2020. In this report, we have highlighted recent data readouts in MDS landscape.
What’s new in MDS and what it means for rigosertib. Forty Seven (FTSV, Not covered)’s magrolimab and Abbvie (ABBV, Not covered)’s venetoclax made the most impact in HR-MDS field. Onconova’s rigosertib has shown similar ORR to magrolimab (92%), but superior ORR to venetoclax (90% versus 70%). Magrolimab showed the highest CR rates with 50%, compared to 34% for rigosertib and 32% for venetoclax. Magrolimab’s clinical benefit was shown in a small patient population (12 patients), while venetoclax treatment resulted in concerning levels (61% grade 3/4) of neutropenia in patients. As we remain on watch for data updates on these assets, we continue to believe rigosertib’s competitive advantage in MDS space. In coming years, we expect multiple approvals in MDS landscape with biomarker segmentation.
What changed for Onconova? Nothing much apart from cash position. We think Onconova’s progress have been hindered by not having the capital required to speed up development of its pipeline assets. Following equity offering, the company not only can maintain NASDAQ listing but also gained optionality to develop rigosertib and other assets. We think there is potential upside upon meaningful clinical data. We believe the current share price doesn’t reflect the potential of Onconova’s pipeline. We are reiterating our Outperform rating and $1.30 price target.
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