Biotech Values

[Whalatane]

Zipjet / Dew. re AMRN.

API supply . Amarin's main source is thru Nisshan ? a Japanese co . From memory they no longer have a supply contract with BASF which now owns a high quality API processing facility in the Scottish Isles via their purchase of Pronova several years ago .

So BASF could certaInly supply a generic co if the Dr Reddy prevailed in their patent challenge .
There is also a new API processing plant in France ...dont know its capacity .

The chances of Dr Reddy ( generics ) prevailing in court are 15% at best ....from the legal opinions I've read .

Should Dr Reddy prevail AMRN would still have exclusivity in the EU for 11 yrs ( according to poster HDG who has looked at this in depth ) and I'm guessing roughly 3 yrs exclusivity left in the US ( correct if necessary ) .

So my take is that if you own AMRN you have at most a 15% chance of the stock being cut in half ( 50% drop in valuation if generics prevail ....Amarin still retains some exclusivity ) .

So what's the upside in the 85% possibility that Amarin defeats or settles this patent challenge ?
They would have the US market until 2029 ( earliest Teva can enter as per previous settlement ) and longer in the EU.
They would partner for the EU and ROW and sell Vascepa themselves in the US .

If AMRN settles / defeats the patent challenge ...how aggressively would a BP like AMGN ( they also sell Repatha so could use existing sales force with their established relationships ) ....pursue AMRN and what would they offer ?
Kiwi
PS. I should note I reduced my position in AMRN following the FDA approval for the expanded indication.... after the stock failed to trade above the previous days close last Monday