Biotech Values

[jq1234]

Currently no question AMRN. As I said on Twitter, if MDCO had CVOT data now similar to AMRN, which is what NVS expect (25% or greater risk reduction) in 2024 or later based on their presentation, then MDCO would have much higher NPV due to longer patent life. Vascepa is a much safer asset like Otezla which is one of several reasons using Otezla as comparison. When NVS/MDCO rumor started, I thought it was very likely true because NVS would be the only natural buyer based on where Vas has been leading NVS too. I’d bet more than 1 bidder for AMRN similar to Otezla, otherwise it would be very unlikely AMGN bid up to $13.4B by itself because BMY/CELG weren’t really in strong negotiation position at the time.