Sanctions May Have Fueled Iran Protests, but Have Yet to Further U.S. Goals
It is hard to discern a strategy that will accomplish the Trump administration’s objectives: renegotiating the nuclear deal with Iran or dialing back Iran’s malign behavior in the region.
President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign helped fuel the unrest in Iran. Doug Mills/The New York Times David E. Sanger
By David E. Sanger
Dec. 2, 2019
President Trump likes to say that Iran is “a different country” after 18 months of punishing American sanctions, and the protests sweeping Iranian cities suggest he may be right. Even his most vociferous critics acknowledge that Mr. Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign helped fuel that unrest.
But it is far from clear that what is unfolding on the streets today will make Iran more likely to renegotiate its nuclear deal or dial back its malign actions in the region, the two major American goals in dealing with the country.
If the lessons of the Arab Spring and the last big Iranian protests in 2009 are any guide, the crackdown on protesters may well succeed — and the Iranian government will press its case that the uprisings are more evidence of a broad American plot to destabilize the government. And even if Iran’s leaders begin to give some ground, it’s not enough to make partial concessions that don’t address Washington’s fundamental complaints, some administration officials have acknowledged in interviews. The government has to crack in the right way, and that is far from assured.