Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[punkle]

I think all the rumor / hope (and maybe this big rally) lies in the Benchmark Adjustments to the base employment level. If this data is way up on Friday, the market will like it and the rumor is the data is up. This Benchmark level gets adjusted once a year. The preliminary adjustment comes out in October, 2003 for the March, 2003 numbers and the final report comes out in March, 2004 for the March, 2003 numbers. For example, last year the headline was this:

Summary of the benchmark revisions
The March 2002 benchmark level for total nonfarm employment is 129,672,000; this figure is 203,000 below the NAICS sample-based estimate for March 2002, an adjustment of 0.2 percent. The published over-the-year change for March 2001 to March 2002 has been revised down by 313,000 or .2 percent. The difference between these two measures is the previously mentioned change in scope of federal government, and the animal services industry under SIC. Table 1 shows the total nonfarm percent differences of benchmark revisions for the past ten years. Table 2 shows the nonfarm employment benchmarks by industry, for March 2002.

In the last 4 years the revisions ranged from +0.4% to -0.2% so if the revision is in the +0.4% or higher range, it may be bullish for the market.

However, I still see the overall nonfarm payrolls going down for the month of October which would be viewed as a negative.