And some thoughts about Vitiligo:
Prevalence is app. 50 m. world wide.
Let’s assume that the price per implant drops significantly. Let’s use $2000 and 4 required implants in the combination therapy that’s $8000 per patient.
With app. 3.200.000 Vitiligo sufferers in the US let’s say that 5 % in total (mainly FP IV & V) would want to use Scenesse in combination with narrowband UVB.
Let’s assume half of that target population can actually pay for the treatment.
That’s 80,000 patients yearly and $640,000 m. in revenues.
After taxes and expenses we would have have app. $450 m. and using a 25 P/E (because at that
stage we’d still be a growth company with other indications being developed) that’s
$11,2 bn. market cap and $229 pps. Use a very conservative 10 P/E and and the pps is $92 based on
Vitiligo alone. My numbers may be off but they do point in a direction and they could also be way too low.
Uptake could be slower but at a higher price. And this is US only.
Now, Vitiligo is also a way to get the lotions to market. A lot of “cured” Vitiligo patients will probably
require the Singaporean lotion Chivere of Tsumoyle as a maintenance therapy. That’s added revenues but
also a way to get the lotions out there and eventually to a broader market.
PW once talked about how he is inspired by Malcolm Gladwell’s book “The Tipping Poin” and
I believe Vitiligo would take us very close to exactly that. Once the price is lowered, we are treating patients
in the thousands, label extensions are sought and hopefully granted, the EPP core business is expanded
substantially in both EU, USA and Japan, off label is happening and lotions are about to hit the market,
then we are a totally different company and talking a pps in the hundreds.
EPP alone is much more interesting than I expected some years ago.
With the news efficacy data I don’t see why we shouldn’t be able to reach
2000 patients in fairly short time once we have both EU and US up and running.
Down the road that could double. 2000 patients x $15,000 per implant x 4,5
implants per patient (average) x 0,7 x 25 P/E / 49 m. s/o = $49 pps.
That’s for 2000 patients.
Many variables can change but the direction is up.
