>For later entrants to win meaningful market share away from a first entrant such as Vertex, they would have to prove they have a decisive advantage in terms of safety, side effects, efficacy, convenience, cost, or marketing muscle.<
This depends on what the author means by later entrants. It will likely be 2-3 years before VX-950 is on the market. Any drug entering phase-3 before then—such as NM283—will merely have to show a benefit relative to the current SoC (pegifn + ribavirin).
Moreover, VX-950 has not even been tested in non-genotype-1 patients, leaving a pretty big hole for other drug candidates to exploit.
The Barron’s critique you cited comes up short, IMO.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”