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What Are The Central Bankers So Worried About?

Stocks in the United States have soared since June 4th, 2019. This is when the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell, basically backstopped the stock markets after a steep May selloff. At that time, he basically stated that the central bank would act appropriately to sustain the economic expansion. The next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be on July 31, 2019. At this meeting, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points. Some investors, analysts and economists expect the Federal Reserve could even cut rates by as much as 50 basis points at this next meeting. As you see, the stock markets have continued to climb on anticipation of further easing by the Federal Reserve.

Tomorrow morning, ECB President, Mario Draghi, is expected to announce some type of easing in the European Union. You can easily see that this is basically synchronized easing by the central banks around the world. After all, yields are already negative in Europe. What is the problem in the world that has these central bankers so worried right now? On July 8, 2019, Deutsche Bank announced another major restructuring that would layoff 18,000 employees. The bank has a massive derivatives book. This could become a big problem if one or more of the bank's counter parties collapse during a future crisis.
Is this the smoking gun leading to more easing by the Federal Reserve and the ECB, or is there something else lurking out there?

Gold has been soaring as investors and traders continue to buy precious metals. As long as the central banks keep their dovish outlook precious metals should continue to out perform. At this time, gold has been soaring higher despite a strong U.S. Dollar. Often in the past, when the U.S. Dollar has been strong gold has been weak, but not this time around. It seems that money keeps pouring into the U.S. Dollar from foreign countries. After all, Europe and Japan have negative rates and many investors are now losing faith in the Euro. So what is the play? Gold simply seems to be the logical winner in this environment. As long as central bank keep their dovish tone gold is the one asset class that should continue to benefit.




Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks