The way I see it BETonMACE topline has two possible PRs headlines....
Behind door #1 is a PR that says something like:
"Resverlogix's Phase 3 BETonMACE trial of Epigenetic Compound Apabetalone Met Primary Endpoint".
And behind door #2 is a PR along the lines of:
"Resverlogix's Phase 3 BETonMACE tril of Epigenetic Compount Apabetalone Fails to Meet Primary Endpoint".
Obviously beyond the headline there will be other important data being reported, but I would argue that the PPS will trade based on what the headline is. If its thumbs up, look out above....if its thumbs down on the primary objective, then look out below, way way way below in my opinion.
I know that some have expressed the view that if BETonMACE fails to prove a statistically significant improvement in time to first occurrence of adjudication-confirmed narrowly defined MACE....some have argued that secondary endpoints around CKD and Cognition could still provide a path foward.
Personally I don't see it....and here is why. If the trial fails on MACE, then Resverlogix is back to having to design a new trial or trials...and I suspect with CKD and Cognition they'd be starting from Phase 2, which by my read would mean adding another 2 or more likely 3 years to the possibility of comercialization of Apabetalone.
I assume they'd need somewhere around $40 to $50 million Canadian per year...and they don't have it right now, that is money they'd have to raise. Personally I think its game over with Apabetalone then being sold off to whomever would be willing to buy it....and imo at a severe discount to what it "may" one day prove to be worth.
In my mind this is a totally binary play with everything riding on meeting the primary endpoint. Best case scenario is a PR that says:
"Resverlogix's Phase 3 BETonMACE trial of Epigenetic Compound Apabetalone Met both the Primary Endpoint and Secondary Endpoints".
If you want to taste the fruit, you have to go out on a limb. But if you wait for the herd to move out on the limb....the branch tends to snap.
