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Monday, May 20, 2019 7:51:39 PM
Tearex, Trump’s Timid, Disappointing Immigration Proposal
The president missed his chance to make an offer that Democrats might plausibly support.
By Karl W. Smith
May 20, 2019, 8:00 PM GMT+10
Not offering any kind of grand bargain. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Karl W. Smith is a former assistant professor of economics at the University of
North Carolina's school of government and founder of the blog Modeled Behavior.
Follow @karlbykarlsmith on Twitter
Three months ago, President Donald Trump declared .. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/trump-calls-for-more-legal-immigration-after-pushing-to-cut-it .. his love for legal immigration and said he wanted people coming to the U.S. “in the largest numbers ever.” Last week the administration revealed .. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/trump-s-immigration-plan-faces-cold-reception-even-within-gop .. exactly what he meant by that — and it is disappointing, to say the least.
Trump’s February promise may have sounded odd to those who see him as hostile to immigration. But there are at least two camps in Trump world.
One, call it the California contingent, believes that “our country is full,” as the president himself said .. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-05/trump-to-cap-week-of-border-threats-by-visiting-calexico-wall .. in an event in California last month. Its members basically want a big sign on the border that says, “No Vacancies.”
The other group, call it the New York contingent — one of its leading proponents is former Manhattan resident Jared Kushner, the president’s adviser and son-in-law — sees immigration as a source of growth, but wants that growth concentrated in the high-skilled areas of the economy. More nurses and fewer nannies, in other words. The sign they want on the border says, “Expert Help Wanted.”
There are two ways to settle the differences between factions. One is to focus only on their point of agreement: that there are too many low-skilled immigrants. This has essentially been the administration’s policy since California-contingent adviser Steve Bannon’s departure in August 2017.
It’s hard to claim it has worked. By targeting many poor and vulnerable .. https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/09/why-blocking-poor-immigrants-could-be-very-costly/571087/ .. immigrants, the policy further alienates moderates and progressives. And because it has failed .. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/10/whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-6-charts/ .. to stem the inflow of undocumented immigrants, it fuels populist and conservative frustration with the president.
So it would seem the time is ripe for the second approach: the elusive grand bargain .. https://www.google.com/search?q=grand+bargian+on+immigration . Give both contingents some of what they want and force them to accept some of what they don’t. Allow more immigration than the California contingent would prefer, but not as much as the New York contingent would like. Crack down on undocumented workers — but through their employers. Enforce existing laws. If Nixon could go to China, was the thinking last week, then Trump can strike a grand bargain on immigration.
That’s not what happened. The policy unveiled last week would shift the preferences for legal immigration away from family and diversity and toward merit, but leave the overall level the same .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-says-daca-protections-too-divisive-to-be-included-in-trump-immigration-plan/2019/05/16/5ee50606-77e3-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dd4776a313d9 . It does not address the fate of the Dreamers, the 800,000 or so young people brought to the U.S. illegally when they were children, or the rest of the undocumented population. It is silent on expansion of the E-Verify system .. https://cis.org/Arthur/Could-President-Mandate-EVerify .. that hardliners (correctly) say discourages illegal immigration by making it more difficult for employers to hire undocumented workers.
The plan’s one innovation, a permanent fund for border security, is a silly maneuver that overemphasizes current politics. Democrats have long been willing to fund border security — and would be now if it weren’t for the administration’s harsh rhetoric .. https://www.rollcall.com/news/trump-lobbies-for-dem-support-of-immigration-plan-even-while-using-hardline-rhetoric .. about immigrants and immigration policy.
Far better would have been to adopt a comprehensive plan that radically increased the amount of merit-based immigration and fully implemented the E-Verify system. That second step would also bring into sharp relief the question of what to do about the undocumented population, estimated to be about 10.7 million .. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/28/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ .. in 2016.
There are a number of solutions to that problem. One, proposed .. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/552397/melting-pot-or-civil-war-by-reihan-salam/9780735216273/ .. by so-called “reformicon” Reihan Salam, would give amnesty to the current undocumented population but end family-sponsored immigration. Such a move would encourage the assimilation of the undocumented population. Another would be to combine the concept of Heartland visas .. https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Heartland-Visas-Report.pdf .. with deferred enforcement and a path to legalization. Such a plan would allow undocumented residents who don’t qualify for the Dream Act to receive a similar deal if they got a job in declining communities.
Any such path to legalization should also require that undocumented immigrants learn English. Progressives often overestimate the role of race, and underestimate the role of language .. https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2017/02/01/512708133/to-be-american-first-speak-english-study-says , in fueling working-class opposition to immigration.
I realize that proposals such as these would be subject to intense criticism from all sides. If anyone can weather such criticism, however, it’s Trump; above all else, I suspect, his base just wants some progress. When he announced his intentions three months ago to offer what sounded like a genuine compromise proposal on immigration, I implored Democrats .. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-08/trump-s-immigration-offer-is-too-good-for-democrats-to-pass-up .. to be open to it. I now beg the president to have the guts to make one.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-20/trump-s-immigration-proposal-is-a-timid-disappointment
Before his latest offer Trump has operated essentially by catering to the more conservative of his base - evangelist anti-abortion extremists
and extreme anti-amnesty immigration nativists - and in so doing basically not satisfying more moderate conservatives, or Democrats.
Here’s Trump’s latest offer to end the shutdown — and why Democrats aren’t interested
The “deal” Trump is offering on immigration and DACA, explained.
By Dara Lind and Li Zhou Jan 19, 2019, 3:53pm EST
[...]
Democrats aren’t particularly interested in what Trump is proposing. “Democrats were not consulted on this and have rejected similar overtures previously,” a Democratic aide told Vox. “It’s clearly a non-serious product of negotiations among White House staff to try to clean up messes the president created in the first place. POTUS is holding more people hostage for his wall.”
After weeks of all-or-nothing intransigence, Trump’s announcement Saturday indicates that the White House realizes it’s losing the shutdown in the eyes of most Americans, and is willing to compromise to reopen the government. But Democrats also know the White House is losing the shutdown, and the compromise now on offer is something they are unlikely to take.
What Trump is offering: $5.7 billion for the wall in exchange for extensions of existing protections for some immigrants
Trump is pitching this as a compromise: He wants the wall; Democrats want to help DACA and TPS recipients. But the deal isn’t the result of conversations with Democrats. It’s reportedly the result of discussions that Vice President Mike Pence and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner have had with congressional Republicans (most notably South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham).
And it shows. What Trump is offering — temporary extensions of existing protections for both groups of immigrants — isn’t something that Democrats have been wildly enthusiastic about in the past. Furthermore, with Trump’s efforts to strip existing protections held up in court, it’s essentially a short extension of the status quo.
DACA recipients are currently being allowed to extend their protections for two years, just as they could under the Obama administration, while the administration fights in court to end the program. (People who don’t already have protections are no longer allowed to apply.) Without knowing when the Supreme Court will rule — or how the Trump administration will proceed if the Supreme Court agrees it can end DACA, since the original plan (issuing no renewals for expirations after March 2018) is obviously moot — it’s hard to say for sure that a three-year, one-time extension will protect DACA recipients for longer than waiting for the Supreme Court.
Here’s what Trump offered Saturday:
[...]
Trump is in a weakening position on the shutdown — and on immigration
Trump could have proposed this deal at any time since before the government shut down; Graham has been pushing it for weeks. But as recently as Wednesday, Trump was telling reporters .. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/19/trump-government-shutdown-deal-1116049 .. that he was waiting for Democrats to come back to the table to negotiate. And just last week, Vice President Mike Pence told reporters .. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/424781-pence-on-shutdown-fight-no-wall-no-deal .. that the president was firmly opposed, in particular, to any wall deal that addressed the DACA issue.
https://www.vox.com/2019/1/19/18189549/trump-shutdown-announcement-deal-daca-democrats
As for your bullshit
"Example -
Dreamers would be a done deal if you did not fight wall funding, which you all agreed with before Trump got here.
The current Trump immigration reform presented would be a done deal if dems had the courage to insisted E-verify be enacted with it."
No political people before Trump pushed an all-the-way-concrete wall that Mexico would pay for. No one.
And your other is misinformed as you should have realized on reading the Bloomberg article above. Again,
It does not address the fate of the Dreamers, the 800,000 or so young people brought to the U.S. illegally when they were children, or the rest of the undocumented population. It is silent on expansion of the E-Verify system .. https://cis.org/Arthur/Could-President-Mandate-EVerify .. that hardliners (correctly) say discourages illegal immigration by making it more difficult for employers to hire undocumented workers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-20/trump-s-immigration-proposal-is-a-timid-disappointment
The president missed his chance to make an offer that Democrats might plausibly support.
By Karl W. Smith
May 20, 2019, 8:00 PM GMT+10
Not offering any kind of grand bargain. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Karl W. Smith is a former assistant professor of economics at the University of
North Carolina's school of government and founder of the blog Modeled Behavior.
Follow @karlbykarlsmith on Twitter
Three months ago, President Donald Trump declared .. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-06/trump-calls-for-more-legal-immigration-after-pushing-to-cut-it .. his love for legal immigration and said he wanted people coming to the U.S. “in the largest numbers ever.” Last week the administration revealed .. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/trump-s-immigration-plan-faces-cold-reception-even-within-gop .. exactly what he meant by that — and it is disappointing, to say the least.
Trump’s February promise may have sounded odd to those who see him as hostile to immigration. But there are at least two camps in Trump world.
One, call it the California contingent, believes that “our country is full,” as the president himself said .. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-05/trump-to-cap-week-of-border-threats-by-visiting-calexico-wall .. in an event in California last month. Its members basically want a big sign on the border that says, “No Vacancies.”
The other group, call it the New York contingent — one of its leading proponents is former Manhattan resident Jared Kushner, the president’s adviser and son-in-law — sees immigration as a source of growth, but wants that growth concentrated in the high-skilled areas of the economy. More nurses and fewer nannies, in other words. The sign they want on the border says, “Expert Help Wanted.”
There are two ways to settle the differences between factions. One is to focus only on their point of agreement: that there are too many low-skilled immigrants. This has essentially been the administration’s policy since California-contingent adviser Steve Bannon’s departure in August 2017.
It’s hard to claim it has worked. By targeting many poor and vulnerable .. https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/09/why-blocking-poor-immigrants-could-be-very-costly/571087/ .. immigrants, the policy further alienates moderates and progressives. And because it has failed .. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/04/10/whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-6-charts/ .. to stem the inflow of undocumented immigrants, it fuels populist and conservative frustration with the president.
So it would seem the time is ripe for the second approach: the elusive grand bargain .. https://www.google.com/search?q=grand+bargian+on+immigration . Give both contingents some of what they want and force them to accept some of what they don’t. Allow more immigration than the California contingent would prefer, but not as much as the New York contingent would like. Crack down on undocumented workers — but through their employers. Enforce existing laws. If Nixon could go to China, was the thinking last week, then Trump can strike a grand bargain on immigration.
That’s not what happened. The policy unveiled last week would shift the preferences for legal immigration away from family and diversity and toward merit, but leave the overall level the same .. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-says-daca-protections-too-divisive-to-be-included-in-trump-immigration-plan/2019/05/16/5ee50606-77e3-11e9-b3f5-5673edf2d127_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dd4776a313d9 . It does not address the fate of the Dreamers, the 800,000 or so young people brought to the U.S. illegally when they were children, or the rest of the undocumented population. It is silent on expansion of the E-Verify system .. https://cis.org/Arthur/Could-President-Mandate-EVerify .. that hardliners (correctly) say discourages illegal immigration by making it more difficult for employers to hire undocumented workers.
The plan’s one innovation, a permanent fund for border security, is a silly maneuver that overemphasizes current politics. Democrats have long been willing to fund border security — and would be now if it weren’t for the administration’s harsh rhetoric .. https://www.rollcall.com/news/trump-lobbies-for-dem-support-of-immigration-plan-even-while-using-hardline-rhetoric .. about immigrants and immigration policy.
Far better would have been to adopt a comprehensive plan that radically increased the amount of merit-based immigration and fully implemented the E-Verify system. That second step would also bring into sharp relief the question of what to do about the undocumented population, estimated to be about 10.7 million .. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/28/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ .. in 2016.
There are a number of solutions to that problem. One, proposed .. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/552397/melting-pot-or-civil-war-by-reihan-salam/9780735216273/ .. by so-called “reformicon” Reihan Salam, would give amnesty to the current undocumented population but end family-sponsored immigration. Such a move would encourage the assimilation of the undocumented population. Another would be to combine the concept of Heartland visas .. https://eig.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Heartland-Visas-Report.pdf .. with deferred enforcement and a path to legalization. Such a plan would allow undocumented residents who don’t qualify for the Dream Act to receive a similar deal if they got a job in declining communities.
Any such path to legalization should also require that undocumented immigrants learn English. Progressives often overestimate the role of race, and underestimate the role of language .. https://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2017/02/01/512708133/to-be-american-first-speak-english-study-says , in fueling working-class opposition to immigration.
I realize that proposals such as these would be subject to intense criticism from all sides. If anyone can weather such criticism, however, it’s Trump; above all else, I suspect, his base just wants some progress. When he announced his intentions three months ago to offer what sounded like a genuine compromise proposal on immigration, I implored Democrats .. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-08/trump-s-immigration-offer-is-too-good-for-democrats-to-pass-up .. to be open to it. I now beg the president to have the guts to make one.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-20/trump-s-immigration-proposal-is-a-timid-disappointment
Before his latest offer Trump has operated essentially by catering to the more conservative of his base - evangelist anti-abortion extremists
and extreme anti-amnesty immigration nativists - and in so doing basically not satisfying more moderate conservatives, or Democrats.
Here’s Trump’s latest offer to end the shutdown — and why Democrats aren’t interested
The “deal” Trump is offering on immigration and DACA, explained.
By Dara Lind and Li Zhou Jan 19, 2019, 3:53pm EST
[...]
Democrats aren’t particularly interested in what Trump is proposing. “Democrats were not consulted on this and have rejected similar overtures previously,” a Democratic aide told Vox. “It’s clearly a non-serious product of negotiations among White House staff to try to clean up messes the president created in the first place. POTUS is holding more people hostage for his wall.”
After weeks of all-or-nothing intransigence, Trump’s announcement Saturday indicates that the White House realizes it’s losing the shutdown in the eyes of most Americans, and is willing to compromise to reopen the government. But Democrats also know the White House is losing the shutdown, and the compromise now on offer is something they are unlikely to take.
What Trump is offering: $5.7 billion for the wall in exchange for extensions of existing protections for some immigrants
Trump is pitching this as a compromise: He wants the wall; Democrats want to help DACA and TPS recipients. But the deal isn’t the result of conversations with Democrats. It’s reportedly the result of discussions that Vice President Mike Pence and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner have had with congressional Republicans (most notably South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham).
And it shows. What Trump is offering — temporary extensions of existing protections for both groups of immigrants — isn’t something that Democrats have been wildly enthusiastic about in the past. Furthermore, with Trump’s efforts to strip existing protections held up in court, it’s essentially a short extension of the status quo.
DACA recipients are currently being allowed to extend their protections for two years, just as they could under the Obama administration, while the administration fights in court to end the program. (People who don’t already have protections are no longer allowed to apply.) Without knowing when the Supreme Court will rule — or how the Trump administration will proceed if the Supreme Court agrees it can end DACA, since the original plan (issuing no renewals for expirations after March 2018) is obviously moot — it’s hard to say for sure that a three-year, one-time extension will protect DACA recipients for longer than waiting for the Supreme Court.
Here’s what Trump offered Saturday:
[...]
Trump is in a weakening position on the shutdown — and on immigration
Trump could have proposed this deal at any time since before the government shut down; Graham has been pushing it for weeks. But as recently as Wednesday, Trump was telling reporters .. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/19/trump-government-shutdown-deal-1116049 .. that he was waiting for Democrats to come back to the table to negotiate. And just last week, Vice President Mike Pence told reporters .. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/424781-pence-on-shutdown-fight-no-wall-no-deal .. that the president was firmly opposed, in particular, to any wall deal that addressed the DACA issue.
https://www.vox.com/2019/1/19/18189549/trump-shutdown-announcement-deal-daca-democrats
As for your bullshit
"Example -
Dreamers would be a done deal if you did not fight wall funding, which you all agreed with before Trump got here.
The current Trump immigration reform presented would be a done deal if dems had the courage to insisted E-verify be enacted with it."
No political people before Trump pushed an all-the-way-concrete wall that Mexico would pay for. No one.
And your other is misinformed as you should have realized on reading the Bloomberg article above. Again,
It does not address the fate of the Dreamers, the 800,000 or so young people brought to the U.S. illegally when they were children, or the rest of the undocumented population. It is silent on expansion of the E-Verify system .. https://cis.org/Arthur/Could-President-Mandate-EVerify .. that hardliners (correctly) say discourages illegal immigration by making it more difficult for employers to hire undocumented workers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-20/trump-s-immigration-proposal-is-a-timid-disappointment
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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