Wednesday, April 03, 2019 6:11:36 PM
Understandable. I think another Paulson raise is absolutely on the way - all you have to do is watch the share price over the last couple of days to see that. Sells down to exactly $0.50 today, after it was below $0.50 prior to the PR's this week? There's no mystery there. Nobody has to read those tea leaves - they're punching us in the face.
As for licensing "this year"... I'll bet that's finally an adult in the room editing NP's wording. I'm more interested in the fact that they have several offers, counteroffers, leads, etc. Those things take time, and it sounds as though they've been having negotiations for at least a quarter now. I'll bet something gets done on either the diagnostic test or the HIV front relatively soon, although it may be an LOI and it could still be months til closing. And cash. Thus, the share price sits at $0.50 right now.
TNBC will happen when it happens, I'm not concerned. The data presented on Monday suggests to me that they might actually be thinking about expanding the trial. Why do only TNBC when it looks to be equally effective on HER2 as well? Do it right, incorporate both, etc. Even an accelerated approval pathway for cancer would likely come no earlier than (expected) combo approval, thus allowing the label expansion pathway anyways. So if you're not going to save SIGNIFICANT time, save the trouble of needing another trial for HER2 later. NP shouldn't have been so optimistic about when they would start the trial, in my opinion. It was thrown together at light speed to begin with. To paraphrase RP... the responsibility is not to fail the technology.
As for licensing "this year"... I'll bet that's finally an adult in the room editing NP's wording. I'm more interested in the fact that they have several offers, counteroffers, leads, etc. Those things take time, and it sounds as though they've been having negotiations for at least a quarter now. I'll bet something gets done on either the diagnostic test or the HIV front relatively soon, although it may be an LOI and it could still be months til closing. And cash. Thus, the share price sits at $0.50 right now.
TNBC will happen when it happens, I'm not concerned. The data presented on Monday suggests to me that they might actually be thinking about expanding the trial. Why do only TNBC when it looks to be equally effective on HER2 as well? Do it right, incorporate both, etc. Even an accelerated approval pathway for cancer would likely come no earlier than (expected) combo approval, thus allowing the label expansion pathway anyways. So if you're not going to save SIGNIFICANT time, save the trouble of needing another trial for HER2 later. NP shouldn't have been so optimistic about when they would start the trial, in my opinion. It was thrown together at light speed to begin with. To paraphrase RP... the responsibility is not to fail the technology.
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