ajtj99's Market Pulse

[ajtj99]

NDX 60-minute seems like it could use another half day of down:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]eaclyyay[d20030801,20030922][pb20!b50!b200!c...

Best strategy for going swing long would be to wait for a bullish divergence in RSI or stochs, which often happens on a re-test of a prior low.

On the daily NDX, we pierced the 13-EMA at 1365, but we closed above it by 1-point at 1366. I think that's significant, as we've closed above the 13-EMA on the NDX all but one day since the 4th day of the uptrend out of the August lows.

We have never closed below the 20EMA since the 4th day of the rally out of early August, and we've only tagged it 3-times since then. The 20-EMA is around 1353 NDX tomorrow on the daily.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]dacayyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f...

Looking at the daily chart, I think it might make sense to have a pretty narrow trading range of maybe 20-30 points or so over the next few days to consolidate some more. 3-more days would be 13-days off the 1387 NDX high. That would allow a move up for end of month window dressing, which could be particularly strong on the Dow this month due to the soft resistance between 9660 and 9800.

Max Pain for October is still firm at 34.25:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/os?s=QQQ&m=2003-10-17

That's 1376 NDX.

Also, the weekly NDX is not showing a bearish divergence in the RSI-14, which one would anticipate if we were pointed down for a much larger correction (like .382 of the entire rise since March):

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[g,a]wacayyay[d19990822,20030922][pb20!b50!b200!c...