I believe you are absolutely correct.
The volume is minuscule. Therere are 200 million+ shares out. On a "good" day 100,000 are traded and on some days 20,000. That is 0.01- 0.05%. I think we have a lot of "believers" that are long and strong, willing to wait it out, and not selling. I do not think we have a lack of PR problem. There is a pool of POTENTIAL investors who have heard of Niocorp, done their DD, and discovered that financing has been just around the corner for well over a year. They have decided "a $billion is a lot, I am interested, but I will wait and see." The good news is that these people do exist. When we get financing they will jump in ASAP. I suspect a good bit of the buying is members of this forum. A couple months ago I made a buy that was over 50% of the volume for the day. I am absolutely NOT some bigtime "moving the market" investor. The volume is just extremely low. We regulary discuss how people selling blocks of 100 and 500 shares are driving the market up or down. That should NOT be possible.
Any type of charting is an attempt to predict the future based on what has happened in the past. You are trying to predict how people (buyers and sellers) will behave based on how they have behaved in the past. I predict that in lieu of big news, they will continue to behave just like they have behaved. Volume will remain low and the price will drift around in the US$ 0.40-0.50 range.
The two things that a chart cannot predict, but that will change everything:
Any type of PP or "continuing" financing will be bad. At least a few of the "long and strongs" will give up and say that's it, this is NOT happening. SP will drop back to the 30's and stay there.
The BIG F or a loan big enough to start major construction work will do wonders. All those investors that were in "wait and see" mode will jump in. The SP will shoot up and that in itself will attract more attention. Once this happens we will never see the SP below a dollar again and probably not close to a dollar.
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