Saturday, February 23, 2019 4:58:34 PM
SESN has roughly 50 million in cash at the current and historical burn rate of 2.8 million per quarter which gives the SESN approx 8.4 quarters on runway for approval with a regulatory approval stage Ph 3 data due around the middle of this year.
50 million in cash divided outstanding share could gives a theoretical bottom in stock price of $0.64 if trial failure. That would leave 45 million or so for further trials. What is the risk/reward calculation with SESN stock? Investment banks including Jefferies conservatively have a one year price target of $3.50 which the price reached less than a year ago. Lets say on failure the price gets over sold to $0.30 for $0.50 downside upside is $2.70 according to Jefferies & Co. One to Five even if it goes to zero with over $0.58 cash on the books the risk/reward would be one on loss side and three 1/3 on reward ratio all with the interim data suggesting a positive final trial read out for refractive non invasive bladder cancer where the only current treatment is bladder removal. Seems like a great chance of approval refractive NIBC and validation of the platform for other indications as well. Once it is approved for one indivmcation the others should fall like dominoes. Case in point the ever expanding label and indications for Keytruda.
Are shareholders of SESN being conditioned like Pavlov's Dog to accept a low ball buyout bid by share price suppresion? I think quite possible.
Long SESN
50 million in cash divided outstanding share could gives a theoretical bottom in stock price of $0.64 if trial failure. That would leave 45 million or so for further trials. What is the risk/reward calculation with SESN stock? Investment banks including Jefferies conservatively have a one year price target of $3.50 which the price reached less than a year ago. Lets say on failure the price gets over sold to $0.30 for $0.50 downside upside is $2.70 according to Jefferies & Co. One to Five even if it goes to zero with over $0.58 cash on the books the risk/reward would be one on loss side and three 1/3 on reward ratio all with the interim data suggesting a positive final trial read out for refractive non invasive bladder cancer where the only current treatment is bladder removal. Seems like a great chance of approval refractive NIBC and validation of the platform for other indications as well. Once it is approved for one indivmcation the others should fall like dominoes. Case in point the ever expanding label and indications for Keytruda.
Are shareholders of SESN being conditioned like Pavlov's Dog to accept a low ball buyout bid by share price suppresion? I think quite possible.
Long SESN
