Biotech Values

[gofishmarko]

>> If the mathematical model NVS and IDIX are using says that NM283+SoC will boost the SVR by only 5 percentage points vs Soc alone, they should probably drop the program and not even bother with phase-3. <<

That's not the model I suggested , either. I offered a hypothetical 55% vs. 50% for NM283/pegifn ( NOT NM283/SOC ) vs. pegifn/riba ( SOC ). An SVR in the 55% range for a treatment with no riba would be quite respectable. They may do a little better , but I've seen nothing that leads me to believe they'll do a lot better than that.

All anyone needs to get docs to use their drug minus riba is some good published data showing that it works. It's not like patients are screaming to get their riba. I doubt that docs today hesitate to use pegifn-only even in naive patients when they have good reason to do so.

One possible reason that IDIX is insisting that they want a NM283/riba arm in the P3 is that they suspect that's the only arm they will have , and want to cushion the blow. The fact that they have waited so long to do the riba interaction studies is suspicious as well. There was a time when IDIX was well ahead of VRTX in development , and were talking about mid-'06 P3 trials. What happened with that ? But especially , why so long to think about trying riba addition ?

The current share price reflects these doubts and some I haven't thought of , I'm sure.