Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

HCV world-wide sales for 4Q18 and all of 2018, 2017, and 2016:

------4Q18------/------2018------/-------2017-------/------2016-------
GILD -738 - 43.2% / 3,686 - 47.5% / 9,137 - 73.2% / 14,834 - 79.77%
ABBV - 862 - 50.5% / 3,616 - 46.6% / 1,274 - 10.2% / 1,522 - 8.30%
MRK - 108 - 6.3% / 455 - 5.9% / 1,660 - 13.3% / 555 - 2.98%


TOTAL - 1,708 / 7,757 / 12,477 / 18,595

Overall market revenue down 38% YOY, and guidance is for another decline in '19, though much smaller. GILD guidance is for ~10-20% drop in patient starts in '19 (again seems overly optimistic to me), but for its HCV revenue to drop ~25%. I looked for total market to be ~$7.5-8.0B in '18, which was higher than companies' guidance. Current run rate is ~$6.83B, but total scripts are still falling, but not as much as last year. With more price competition in US public markets, my guess is that companies' 2019 guidance may be too high this year.