The Kid Sister of All Tops?
by Rick Ackerman
Thursday’s bullish-as-all-get-out edition of the Black Box contained some ambitious price targets, and although not a single one of them has been achieved as yet, it looks as though it will only be a matter of time. My guess is that all of the hidden pivots targets we’ve been monitoring will be reached, probably within no more than a day or two. Assuming I’m right, will that mark the end of the bear rally begun in March, as I’ve implied it will? Quite possibly. But as we all know, Mr. Market rarely does exactly what we expect; and I’ve been expecting a major top on the Dow at exactly 9807 so eagerly and for so long that you can hardly blame me for raising the possibility around now that this well-advertised Niece/Nephew of All Tops might, just might, prove to be a bust.
Not that I don’t think the Dow target will be reached, only that we should not feel cheated if the target does not exhibit the kind of stopping power we might have expected from a hidden pivot that was announced way back in June with a drum roll and a sounding of trumpets. The market gods let prognosticators be right some of the time -- just usually not that right. Of course, being merely sort of right won’t stop some of us from claiming six months from now, as we know some of us will, that we alone called the top – to the day! Actually, if our forecast proves to have been correct within a thousand Dow points and two months, that will be plenty enough to fuel bulk mailings – "The Man Who Called the Top!" – until 2010, at least. If I had kept that 9807 Dow target all to myself, would it have guaranteed a top exactly at that price? We’ll probably never know.
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