Tuesday, November 27, 2018 2:06:13 PM
Yea listen I'm not trying to bash KGKG. I still own 30k shares that I will never sell. I sold the other 1.3m shares because it's jsut overvaleud. The money is still running in to KGKG because it's a classic OTC herd mentality. However that run is mostly cooked. I expect KGKG to do 1m rev next year with a loss of 200k. I assume they will have 550m shares out by decemebr 31 2019. So real quick and dirty is - 1m rev * 20x rev multiplier which is about the peak fair value in this industry (actual market prices go above this multiple but this is peak fair multiple imo) gives you a 20m fair market cap divided by the 550m shares out gives you a fair PPS of $0.036. VATE will do about 1.5m next year with 550m shares out by december 31, 2019 so quick and dirty there is - 1.5 * 20 all divided by 550m shares gives fair PPS of 0.055. Now here's the rub on trading these. Fair value for KGKG is about .04 we'll call it now assuming additional sales ramp up and it has run to .12 so thats abotu a 4x on fair value. VATE fair value is about .055 so given the same 4x run on fair value you could get a max value around .20. That's why I'm saying hold onto every VATE share you have right now. We should run easily to .10 this jan and likely to .15 area. If we have some compiled strong news we could see that .20. I will start unloading my vate shares between the .12 - .20 range in lots of 20k. Then I will keep about 50k long term that I wont sell like my 30k in KGKG. Both companies are studs long term but in OTC you have to play the swings to really make that $$$. Cheers to all. You don't have to agree with me and you can say I'm stupid but this type of thinking / trading has really delivered results to my folio in the last few years.
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