I have an explaination..
Before I say it, though, I want to be clear. I am not trying to be a smart a$$. I am not being flip. I am trying to point the way to a logical thought about what is happening. Many people are going to discount this because you don't have to wear a tinfoil hat while discussing it.
Why is the price not going up and staying up on good news?
Because there are not enough buyers.
For all of the theories about market makers, the true facts are that if there are more buyers than sellers, the market makers will have to move the price up. Yes, I will agree that they can artificially influence a price for a short period of time - maybe even weeks. I do not believe, however, that they can keep a stock price down for months and years.
We had a saying in commodities. "The market has a paddle big enough to beat ANYONE's ass." That is true. You can only go against fundamentals for so long. Sooner or later, the rest of the market slaps you around and you hope you are not over margined. The art is to see it coming and get they hell out before it happens.
So, assuming there is some semblance of truth in the prior two paragraphs, what in the world is going on?
I think we need to remember that this stock is a little bit different. Let's think about the different participants and try to get an idea of what is up with them.
Former WMI holders
Many of the retail holders (not most, but many) inherited this stock as part of the ongoing bankruptcy. These people have, by definition, been involved for a very long time and are holding out for a big payoff. At the same time, many (not all) of these people are in a situation where investing more money looks like a bad idea based on 'conventional wisdom'. Phrases like 'good money after bad' and 'don't average down' and 'stay diversified' come to mind.
Furthermore, most of those who are willing to add to their holdings have done so and have certainly had a chance to get their fill.
On balance, I believe that it is reasonable to assign a Net Hold to this category.
former NationStar holders
I can see where many of these people are skeptical about the new company. There was a disruption leading into the merger, talk about lawsuits (ubiquitous but there nonetheless), disruption after the merger (reverse split), and languishing since. I can easily see where investors from that source have been looking for a chance to get out somewhat gracefully and this bump in price could have been it. I can not see them being eager to continue buying. The entire company has been turned upside down and is acquiring lots of things. This sounds good, but with possibly turbulent times ahead, it may not be the safest investment.
On balance, I believe that it is reasonable to assign a Net Sell to this category.
Funds - pre reverse split
Any funds that have been able to participate before the reverse split have had ample time to acquire how ever much of this stock that they are willing to hold. It is certainly possible that they are prevented from adding to that position due to risk management rules within their purview that prevent too much money being invested in any particular stock.
On balance, I believe that it is reasonable to assign a Net Hold (or Mild Sell) to these.
Funds - post reverse split
Any funds that got involved after the reverse split and before this week's announcements are probably 'under water' and waiting for things to improve before they start adding to their position.
I would assign these funds a Net Hold (for now)
Day Traders or Short Term Traders
These are the people who really don't care anything about the future of the company. They probably don't even care what the name of the company is. They look for movement, jump on the wagon, and ride it out. Over time, I suspect that they provide as much as 75% of the volume. Ever since the merger (with the exception of a few days), this stock has been going down. To them, it is just another short. They may have gotten out for the stockholder discussion but have apparently jumped back in.
Also, there may have been a group that got in for no reason other than there was a stockholder announcement. Get in, ride for a while, and get out with no regard for what may happen in a few weeks or months. They will just plan to board the train again then.
I would assign them a Net Hold because I don't see evidence of anyone acquiring a large short position. Short interest is not so large as to cause consternation.
Collectively so far
Hold
Sell
Hold (mild Sell)
Hold
Hold
The real question is why isn't it going down more?
This is where the smart, long term investors come in. They see a company trading below what it should and they cautiously buy. They don't buy all at once because the price will go up and then they can't make as much money. Slow and steady behind the scenes accumulation.
REST ASSURED when there are more buyers than sellers, the price will climb. When that happens, it will climb until there are more sellers than buyers.
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