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Re: jerrylev post# 543366

Sunday, 10/21/2018 7:43:25 PM

Sunday, October 21, 2018 7:43:25 PM

Post# of 749756
I think we are in the same chapter, if not exactly on the same page. :)

Unrelated story:

I spent some time in my career working for a company that used futures and options to manage risk for agricultural producers. One of the key metrics we needed in order to manage those risks was 'how big is the crop likely to be.'

Many (not all, not even most) producers had adopted an attitude of 'estimate costs high and production low' on the theory that if you get a surprise, it will be a good one.

However, when deciding how to invest, you sometimes need it to be a little more accurate than that. :)

I invested in WMI post BK declaration because I saw too many vultures circling the corpse for there not to be some MEAT! Yes, I will only get a nibble compared to the BIGBIRDZ, but that nibble will hopefully feed me for the rest of my life.

I have enjoyed our discussion and will run out of posts at some point. Thanks to all who have contributed links, recordings, documents, and theories over the years. It has been entertaining as well as educational!

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