Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

Susie924, The migrant caravan that has Trump threatening to cut Central American aid, explained

"Bolton and Kelly get into heated shouting match sparking resignation fears"

The Trump/Bolton v Kelly of yours there matched this one picked up yesterday.

The Trump administration sees a group of thousands of Hondurans as a threat to the US’s “border and sovereignty” — but they haven’t even reached Mexico yet.

By Dara [e-mail] Updated Oct 17, 2018, 4:25pm EDT

[...]

Last Friday, a group of about 160 Hondurans set out from San Pedro Sula, frequently labeled the murder capital of the world. According to the Associated Press .. https://apnews.com/9e3521003d0b4fb6be65573c1fd35a3c , the Honduran caravan gathered strength as it made its way to Guatemala — with migrants choosing to join out of economic desperation, fears for their safety, or both — and numbered an estimated 1,600 once it arrived at the Guatemalan border Monday.

Guatemalan officials initially didn’t allow the caravan to enter, but after an hours-long standoff they relented.

In other words, while the Trump administration is threatening to punish Honduras if the caravan doesn’t return, the Honduran government can’t actually bring the migrants back (at least not without invading Guatemala). Stopping the caravan is now up to the Guatemalan government, or, more likely, the Mexican government.

Mexico’s response to the spring caravan shrunk the group heading to the US from more than 1,000 to about 300. But Mexico also responded to that caravan by giving migrants the opportunity to get humanitarian visas to stay in Mexico, while it appears to be taking a harder line ..

Mexico immigration officials warn that those from caravan who didn’t get visas from consulate in Honduras will not be allowed to enter Mexico. In April, when another larger migrant caravan traveled through Mexico, they were given transit/humanitarian visas https://t.co/aoUjXeD7Bd

— Maya Srikrishnan (@msrikris) October 16, 2018

.. with the current group.

But even though the caravan is several weeks from arriving at the US-Mexico border — and will almost certainly be apprehended before that — both Trump and Pence view its existence as a violation of America’s “border and sovereignty.”

That’s consistent with Donald Trump’s understanding of immigration policy, at least as it’s been portrayed in his own comments and reporting from inside the White House.

Trump doesn’t appear to understand that the US can’t simply shut down the US-Mexico border; that people coming to the US without papers can’t simply be repelled or deported (because they might have valid grounds to claim asylum).

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump

Anybody entering the United States illegally will be arrested and
detained, prior to being sent back to their country!
12:24 PM - Oct 17, 2018
.. tweet ..

Nor does he appear to understand that people apply for visas to come to the United States rather than being preselected and “sent” by home countries trying to get rid of them. Given all that, it makes perfect sense that Trump would blame Central American countries for failing to prevent people from leaving — and would see it as an insult to the US that they didn’t.

Others in the Trump administration, however — not least White House Chief of Staff John Kelly, who served as director of the US military’s Southern Command (including Central America) before becoming Trump’s first Homeland Security secretary — understand that it’s much more complicated than that.

Trump is bullying the very people he needs to help him

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/17/17983362/caravan-honduras-trump-border-illegal

See also:

Donald Trump’s Central America strategy is both cruel and incompetent
"Inside Trump’s Disastrous ‘Secret’ Drug War Plans for Central America
"The Border Patrol Was Monstrous Under Obama. Imagine How Bad It Is Under Trump.""

The Trump administration’s attitude to Central America means that thousands of people are set to lose their TPS status. Most recently, the Department of Homeland Security decided to remove Hondurans from the TPS scheme .. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/us/honduras-temporary-protected-status.html , meaning 86,000 Honduran nationals currently living in the US will no longer be eligible to work there. El Salvador .. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/intipuca-town-relies-remittances-braces-tps-180415081217131.html .. was also removed from the programme in February, meaning 200,000 Salvadorans are expected to leave the US by September 2019.
[...]
In December 2017, Trump was among the first world leaders to recognise the re-election of Honduras’s president, Juan Orlando Hernández, which a majority of Hondurans and the Secretary General of the Organisation of American States regarded as illegitimate .. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/18/honduras-election-president-juan-orlando-hernandez-declared-winner-amid-unrest . Hernández’s conservative bent and authoritarian style have probably convinced Trump that he’ll be a reliable if undemocratic guardian of US interests, and specifically that he’ll help crack down on northbound migration. But again, the approach is clearly backfiring.
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