JR ... I don't buy the doomsday scenario either ... Jimmy Rodgers when interviewed by J. Puplava (2 weeks ago) and talked about Argentina and how long it took before it finally collapsed. He was saying it took about 40 years of successive military rule and currency debasement--and yet people still ate, and they still drank, and they still danced. I'm sure life wasn't very easy as they learned to "muddle" there way through life.
...as for the Transportation Index-- they call that Dow Theory ... when one index confirms the other. John Murphy in his 1991 masterpiece "Intermarket Technical Analysis" goes as far as saying that if Charles Dow were alive today the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transportation indices would be accompanied by a third -- the Dow Utilities index. The Ute index is extremely sensitive to interest rates and has (or did) have a close correlation to the bond market. You just have to look at what the debt/equity ratio is in the sector and you'll quickly understand what I'm saying. John Murphy has written that the decoupling between stocks and bonds started happening in 1997 with the deflationary trend that was happening in Asia due to their currency crisis. And now we're seeing the same thing here today as we now know that a bond market collapse doesn't necessarily mean the end of stocks.
Apparently Mr. Murphy will have a new updated version of his book and it will focus on the effects of deflation.