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Sunday, October 07, 2018 7:15:33 PM
How the Suburbs Will Swing the Midterm Election
"White America is quietly self-segregating"
David H. Montgomery/CityLab
David Montgomery / Richard Florida Oct 5, 2018
Close congressional races this November will likely hinge on the moods of suburban voters, a new CityLab analysis finds.
If you want to find a Republican member of Congress, head out into the country. To find a Democrat, your best shot is in a city. But to find a competitive election this fall? Head to the suburbs, where control of the House of Representatives will likely be decided.
More than 40 percent of the U.S. House of Representatives is composed of predominantly suburban districts, according to a new CityLab analysis .. https://github.com/theatlantic/citylab-data/tree/master/citylab-congress .. that classifies all 435 U.S. House districts according to their densities. These seats are currently closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. But that balance could be washed away by a “blue wave” in November. There are 28 Republican-held suburban districts that are competitive1 this fall under FiveThirtyEight .. http://fivethirtyeight.com/ ’s projections—close to 40 percent of Republicans’ 74 suburban seats. The number of suburban Democratic seats in play: 1 out of 90.
Our analysis shows that America’s electoral geography is more complex than a simple divide between “urban” and “rural” areas. There is a continuum of densities in the U.S., even within the category of “suburb.”
If dense districts usually give us Democrats, and far-flung rural districts usually go to Republicans, it’s the suburban places in between—less populous than left-leaning cities, but significantly denser than right-leaning rural areas—that will determine whether the GOP retains control of the House of Representatives.
The CityLab Congressional Density Index
[...]
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/10/midterm-election-data-suburban-voters/572137/
"White America is quietly self-segregating"
David H. Montgomery/CityLab
David Montgomery / Richard Florida Oct 5, 2018
Close congressional races this November will likely hinge on the moods of suburban voters, a new CityLab analysis finds.
If you want to find a Republican member of Congress, head out into the country. To find a Democrat, your best shot is in a city. But to find a competitive election this fall? Head to the suburbs, where control of the House of Representatives will likely be decided.
More than 40 percent of the U.S. House of Representatives is composed of predominantly suburban districts, according to a new CityLab analysis .. https://github.com/theatlantic/citylab-data/tree/master/citylab-congress .. that classifies all 435 U.S. House districts according to their densities. These seats are currently closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. But that balance could be washed away by a “blue wave” in November. There are 28 Republican-held suburban districts that are competitive1 this fall under FiveThirtyEight .. http://fivethirtyeight.com/ ’s projections—close to 40 percent of Republicans’ 74 suburban seats. The number of suburban Democratic seats in play: 1 out of 90.
Our analysis shows that America’s electoral geography is more complex than a simple divide between “urban” and “rural” areas. There is a continuum of densities in the U.S., even within the category of “suburb.”
If dense districts usually give us Democrats, and far-flung rural districts usually go to Republicans, it’s the suburban places in between—less populous than left-leaning cities, but significantly denser than right-leaning rural areas—that will determine whether the GOP retains control of the House of Representatives.
The CityLab Congressional Density Index
[...]
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2018/10/midterm-election-data-suburban-voters/572137/
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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