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8 experts on why the Paul Manafort jury doesn’t have a verdict yet — and what it might mean

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“You could speculate that there’s some dynamic involving a holdout, but the better fit with the facts is that they’re just moving through methodically.”

By Emily Stewart Aug 19, 2018, 2:20pm EDT


Paul Manafort arriving at a Washington, DC court hearing in June 2018. Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images

If it feels like the jury in Paul Mafort’s trial is taking forever to reach a verdict, actually, it’s not. This is how long you’d expect them to take, despite the defense’s claims that extended deliberations and the jury’s questions are a good sign.

Jurors headed home on Friday (they weren’t sequestered) without reaching a verdict after two days of deliberations, frustrating onlookers eager for answers in the highest-profile development yet in special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. Manafort, the former campaign chairman for President Donald Trump, has been charged on 18 total counts. They include bank fraud, bank fraud conspiracy, false income tax returns, and failure to report foreign bank or financial assets, and has pleaded not guilty to all of them. Trump on Friday told reporters he believes the “whole Manafort trial is very sad.”

Thus far, it’s been hard to glean what, if anything, is happening in jury deliberations. Even the names of the people deliberating are unknown: US District Court Judge TS Ellis III, who is overseeing the trial, on Friday expressed surprise that the case would “incite this emotion” and said he has received “threats” related to the case, expressing concern that something similar might happen to the jury if its members’ names are revealed.

Here’s what we do know: The jury asked Ellis four questions on their first day of discussions, and the judge answered two.

So as we wait, I asked eight lawyers what it might mean that the Manafort jurors are taking so long. Their answer, by in large, was that they aren’t.

“Probably means nothing,” Shira Scheindlin, former United States district judge in the Southern District of New York, told me. “Most juries are very meticulous. Bank fraud and tax fraud are complex statutes and involve unfamiliar concepts. They are not in the everyday experience of jurors.”

Jens David Ohlin, vice dean and law professor at Cornell Law School, said the jury continuing to deliberate likely means they’re not super close to a verdict — but he pointed out that there are a lot of charges against Manafort for him to just walk away. “Manafort was charged with multiple counts of multiple charges, thus increasing the mathemetical likelihood of a conviction on at least some counts,” he said.

With links, and more - https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/19/17752532/paul-manafort-jury-decision-judge-ellis

They all pretty well say the same - all good, and as expected it will take time for the jury to work through the paper evidence.