ENTA CC notes:
• ENTA expects its royalty revenue to increase 17% QoQ to $67M in FY4Q18 (calendar 3Q18) if ABBV merely meets its issued Mavyret sales guidance of $850M for the quarter.
• ENTA expects its royalty revenue to further increase to $72M in FY1Q19 (calendar 4Q18) if ABBV merely does $3.6B of Mavyret sales in calendar 2018. (ABBV’s full-year 2018 Mavyret guidance is “greater than $3.5b.”)
• The reason for the expected increase in royalty income in the next two quarters is that ENTA’s royalty rate on Mavyret sales will attain higher royalty tiers than during most of FY3Q18. (The royalty-tier thresholds are based on cumulative calendar-year sales.)
• Despite ESRX’s 2019-formulary exclusion of Mavyret, ABBV expects Mavyret’s US market share in 2019 to be essentially unchanged from 2018.
• There are no foreseeable circumstances under which ENTA would seek to raise capital.
Note: There was considerable CC discussion of clinical progress on ENTA’s wholly owned pipeline in RSV, NASH, and HBV, but I won’t go into those details here.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”
