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Signs of an Upcoming El Niño? Warm Water Creeps Eastward in the Pacific

By Jonathan Belles
weather.com
7 days ago

At a Glance

* Early signs of warm water were spotted in the Pacific that could lead to El Niño.
* El Niño could bring cooler and wetter conditions to the South this winter.
* Warmer-than-average conditions would be expected in the Northwest.

The first signals of a potential El Niño have appeared in the central Pacific Ocean.

A stripe of high sea levels was spotted in early May by one of NASA's low-orbit satellites, JASON-3, in the central Pacific Ocean.

These higher-than-average sea levels are usually caused by a layer of warm water at or just below the surface.

This batch of warm water isn't large enough or in the right location to affect global weather patterns, but that could change later this year.

NASA and the Climate Prediction Center have been tracking this warm water as it slowly moves eastward. Originally spotted in the western Pacific, this water has recently breached across much of the central Pacific, and even into eastern parts of the ocean.

But this is only a small portion of the warmth; there's much more below the surface.

You can actually see this warmer water rise to the surface when you view temperature anomalies at depth.

The important thing to notice in the graphic below is the rise in warm waters toward the surface on the right side of the graphic, especially late in the loop.

(click on the link below to view these graphics)

If and when this warm water completely surfaces, the chances of a classic El Niño increase. This process will likely take months to occur.

How Does This Change Weather Patterns?

This warm water will need to move into the eastern Pacific and increase its depth and intensity.

Scientists will be watching for more eastward progression of this warmth through the summer, fall and likely into the winter months.

NOAA currently estimates that an El Niño pattern could develop by early winter. In other words, they think this warm water might be in place in the eastern Pacific by the start of 2019.

If – and that is somewhat of a big "if" at this point – an El Niño occurs, we would expect a cooler and wetter winter across the southern tier of the United States. We usually see warmer-than-average temperatures in parts of the northwestern U.S. and in western Canada.

It is far too early to know how strong an El Niño might be this year, and such a phenomenon isn't even a lock for this winter quite yet.

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2018-06-07-el-nino-warm-water-pacific