White House Analysis Finds Tariffs Will Hurt Growth, as Officials Insist Otherwise
"Things will be very awkward for Trump at the G7 summit Almost every country at the summit is unhappy with the president."
The chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett, dodged questions in a White House briefing on Tuesday about whether tariffs would hurt an economy that has accelerated during President Trump’s tenure. Doug Mills/The New York Times
By Jim Tankersley and Alan Rappeport
June 7, 2018
WASHINGTON — A White House economic analysis of President Trump’s trade agenda has concluded that Mr. Trump’s tariffs will hurt economic growth in the United States, according to several people familiar with the research.
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On Wednesday, the director of Mr. Trump’s National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, told reporters at the White House briefing that Mr. Trump’s trade policies, along with tax cuts and deregulation, were lifting growth, calling the president “the strongest trade reformer of the past 20 years.”
“The world trading system is a mess,” Mr. Kudlow said. “It is broken down. Insofar as fairness and reciprocity and, ultimately, free trade, I think this is contributing to our economic growth and our confidence.”
The internal findings from the Council of Economic Advisers echo the widely shared view by most economists that tariffs hurt economic growth.
In a March survey of an expert panel of academic economists assembled by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, no economist agreed with the statement, “Imposing new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum will improve Americans’ welfare.”
This week, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects Report that if tariff threats led to trade wars, the consequences could be “devastating.” It pointed to intensifying protectionism around the world as a risk to economic growth.
And last year, a group of former Council of Economic Advisers chairmen from both political parties wrote a letter to Mr. Trump urging him not to move ahead with steel tariffs, warning that “tariffs would raise costs for manufacturers, reduce employment in manufacturing, and increase prices for consumers.”