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Thursday, May 24, 2018 8:42:06 PM
Trump’s summit flip-flop risks fallout far beyond North Korea
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. (J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press)
By Josh Rogin Columnist May 24 at 5:28 PM Email the author
[...]
If you thought the Trump-Kim summit was always a folly, Trump’s withdrawal is good news. Now, Trump won’t get outmaneuvered by Kim. It’s true that expectations rose out of control. The president may have realized that barreling into a high-level summit without proper preparation was fairly reckless, although he argued consistently it wasn’t.
But by cutting off the diplomacy in the middle with no certainty of what comes next, Trump has opened up a world of possible consequences, most of them bad. For one, “maximum pressure” is already loosening and will be extremely difficult to replace. The idea that squeezing North Korea more will bring it back to the table is aspirational at best.
The U.S.-South Korea alliance is headed for tough times. Pompeo didn’t deny that Trump neglected to give President Moon Jae-in advance warning that he was scrapping the summit. Moon was in town just two days ago. His legacy hangs in the balance. Trump made Moon lose face and put distance between the two allies.
Pompeo could lose credibility, not only with Kim but also any world leader who now can’t be sure he speaks for the president. Pompeo himself must now pivot from his optimistic rhetoric about bringing North Korea into the 21st century and toe the more hawkish, Bolton line of pushing more sanctions all the time.
China could take advantage, putting itself forward as the new key broker in diplomacy. By pulling North Korea away from the United States (and by extension South Korea), we may end up pushing Kim back into Beijing’s arms. Xi Jinping now holds the key to enforcing sanctions and getting back to negotiations. He might use that leverage against Trump to get concessions in trade and other areas.
[...]
Maybe a deal with North Korea was never in the cards. But Trump’s actions on North Korea have broader regional and international implications. The least the administration can do now is work diligently to mitigate the risk that Trump’s about-face will do more damage than good.
Read more from Josh Rogin’s archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-summit-flip-flop-risks-fallout-far-beyond-north-korea/2018/05/24/b8c7542a-5f8a-11e8-a4a4-c070ef53f315_story.html?utm_term=.08f782f6bfd3
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. (J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press)
By Josh Rogin Columnist May 24 at 5:28 PM Email the author
[...]
If you thought the Trump-Kim summit was always a folly, Trump’s withdrawal is good news. Now, Trump won’t get outmaneuvered by Kim. It’s true that expectations rose out of control. The president may have realized that barreling into a high-level summit without proper preparation was fairly reckless, although he argued consistently it wasn’t.
But by cutting off the diplomacy in the middle with no certainty of what comes next, Trump has opened up a world of possible consequences, most of them bad. For one, “maximum pressure” is already loosening and will be extremely difficult to replace. The idea that squeezing North Korea more will bring it back to the table is aspirational at best.
The U.S.-South Korea alliance is headed for tough times. Pompeo didn’t deny that Trump neglected to give President Moon Jae-in advance warning that he was scrapping the summit. Moon was in town just two days ago. His legacy hangs in the balance. Trump made Moon lose face and put distance between the two allies.
Pompeo could lose credibility, not only with Kim but also any world leader who now can’t be sure he speaks for the president. Pompeo himself must now pivot from his optimistic rhetoric about bringing North Korea into the 21st century and toe the more hawkish, Bolton line of pushing more sanctions all the time.
China could take advantage, putting itself forward as the new key broker in diplomacy. By pulling North Korea away from the United States (and by extension South Korea), we may end up pushing Kim back into Beijing’s arms. Xi Jinping now holds the key to enforcing sanctions and getting back to negotiations. He might use that leverage against Trump to get concessions in trade and other areas.
[...]
Maybe a deal with North Korea was never in the cards. But Trump’s actions on North Korea have broader regional and international implications. The least the administration can do now is work diligently to mitigate the risk that Trump’s about-face will do more damage than good.
Read more from Josh Rogin’s archive, follow him on Twitter or subscribe to his updates on Facebook.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-summit-flip-flop-risks-fallout-far-beyond-north-korea/2018/05/24/b8c7542a-5f8a-11e8-a4a4-c070ef53f315_story.html?utm_term=.08f782f6bfd3
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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