I'm a little more optimistic then you but I can understand why you came out where you did on your projection and based on their history and lack of governance you may very well be right on your thoughts on EPS and stock price.
I'm still trying to steal some at 79 cents but having such a large stake I actually tried to model both IFH and IGourmet for the next 3 quarters and for the full year using quarterly history for IFH for 2016 and 2017 and annual amounts for IGourmet and the little clues I can gather from the press release. My assumptions are as follows:
(1) I used 1Q as in the press release with an add back of $200K for the one time costs, record 1Q revenues for IFH and an operating loss for IGourmet.
(2) For 2018 quarter over 2017 quarter revenue growth I used 12% for both IFH and IGourmet. For perspective, IFH's 2017 over 2016 annual revenue increase was 17%. IGourmet had a March over March revenue increase of 30% according to the press release.
(3) For IGourmet 2017 quarterly sales I used the following % of the year breakdown by quarter --- 1Q (10%), 2Q (18%), 3Q (27%) and 4Q (45%)
(4) Gross margin of 33% for IFH and 26.5% for IGourmet
(5) I had SG&A and interest expenses at 22-23% of revenues for IVH and for IGourmet I used 34% of revenues in the 1Q and 10% of revenues thereafter which essentially leads to reducing Igourmet's standalone S&GA and interest by two thirds (hopefully from synergies).
(6) I didn't change the outstanding shares as I didn't know what to do for that.
I get the following EPS by quarter:
1Q - 1.9 cents with the addback
2Q - 4.2 cents
3Q - 5 cents
4Q - 6 cents
2018 - 17.1 cents
I would say 20-25 cents in 2019.
If I'm close on the 2018 EPS projection then the 2018 P/E multiple is 4.7 today. I think that without any hiccups and if management can achieve that EPS guess of mine above the P/E would go to around 7. Although I'd love for it to go higher I think they would need either better performance than I project and/or better governance. If it is 7 than that would $1.20-$1.60 stock price range. With my weighted cost now at 98 cents, I would take that and I don't think it is totally unrealistic.
On my assumptions, I probably have the law of compensating errors. My revenue growth rate is probably low, but my expenses may be too low to or the they don't get the synergies out of IGourmet. Also their will probably be more stock outstanding.
I know this is lengthy but I want to get your thoughts and then track this going forward to see how close I am.
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