Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Slide 11 in the RVNC investor day slide deck shows potential revenue as management sees it. It states > $1 Billion in the "2022-2025" time frame and > $3 Billion in the "2026+" time frame and these figures are per annum.

The guided timeline for RT002 approval in glabellar lines is to file the BLA in early 2019 with a 9-12 mos FDA approval cycle. So approval in early 2020. Aesthetics is roughly half of the current $4 Billion market (see slides 65 and 66) so call it $2 Billion. For RVNC to achieve $1 billion in sales in 2022-2025 time frame would mean RVNC would need to get 50% of the aesthetic market within 2-5 years of being on the market. This is plausible especially if RVNC expands the addressable market considering the 6mos duration convinces new patients to get treatment.

Assuming additional indications get approved (Cervical Dystonia starts P3 in 2nd half 2018), the $3 Billion/yr number post 2026 is also plausible with good growth in Aesthetics plus a large share of therapeutics.

For now- these are numbers which are good enough for analysts to do come up with their own DCF models. It will be interesting to see what they see as achievable sales. I expect we will see upgrades and or downgrades based on what they see as achievable revenue for RT002.