Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[finesand]

Evaluation Update

Thank you all for your input, this is a Work in Progress (WIP) naturally.

ThaiMed (IZ) Comparison

TaiMed Comparison, owner of Ibalizumab (IZ)
Their drug (IZ) is currently approved and roughly equivalent in terms of market size as PRO-140, but actually should have smaller market size see:
IZ label requires 3 Drug MDR (later treatment, less patients) vs 2 Drug MDR for PRO-140 (earlier treatment, more patients and
even preventing some patients from transitioning into 3-class MDR).
MDR = multi-drug resistant
In 2017 they asked FDA for label extension from IV to IM for their MDR patients, but only having unaudited data.
IZ IM IV (intramuscular injection) may hence not be approved in US.

And it should be noted that shortly after TaiMed announced filing of their BLA, the market cap rose to ~$1.6B.
TaiMed was approved by the FDA in March, 2018. Now the market cap is the current USD$2.2B.
TaiMed has plenty of cash
TaiMed had only 30 patients in their ph3 and no MONO objective, only COMBO
TaiMed 43% achieved HIV RNA suppression after 24 weeks of Trogarzo.
TaiMed common adverse events: diarrhea, dizziness, nausea and rash.
TaiMed severe adverse events: rash and immune reconstitution syndrome, a condition in some HIV patients where the immune system recovers but then responds to a previously acquired opportunistic infection with an overwhelming immune (inflammatory) response.(edited)
"Therefor their market size is smaller due to
- COMBO only
- 3 Drug MDR
- IM IV not approved yet
- 43% Viral Suppression instead of nearly 99% w/ Pro140
- Having AEs and even SAEs

Basics for Multiples
TaiMed https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financial-highlights/4147.TWO (also shows industry + sector multiples)
Discount rates in drug development 2011 http://www.avance.ch/avance_biostrat_discount_survey.pdf(edited)
Discount Rates for Biotech Companies 2008 http://www.avance.ch/newsletter/docs/discount_1.pdf
Valuation of Your Early Drug Candidate 2011 https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.michbio.org/resource/resmgr/BioToolBox_-_Commercialization/Valuation_of_Drug_Candidate.pdf

The DFC Evaluation based on Market Penetration & Multiples

Notables:
- Matching TaiMed's post BLA Combo value
- Using high over the top developing biotech discounts +15%

Source
- Spreadsheet
- PDF

Current Evaluation assuming Combo w/ BLA being filed


PDF and Spreadsheet files above includes the 'established' company eval-2, while still in early penetration state.