Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[fred198484]

Thanks for an excellent reply

- First, low p-value indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis. A very low p-value - typically cited as below 0.05 - is a good thing. The company stated that it was below 0.01. That's VERY good. Why do you think they included the p-value in the press release? It suggests that the data was very conclusive. Don't believe me? You don't have to: blog.minitab.com/blog/adventures-in-statistics-2/how-to-correctly-interpret-p-values

It is good but I have seen better and combined with the lack of detail about the patients response leads me to conclude there may be more non-responders or low responders than many believe. If you have good data, you report it. They didn't, so one should reasonably be a bit skeptical until the company shares the data.

- The company didn't say it would "help them recruit for mono". They said they "look forward to completing enrollment in our ongoing monotherapy trial". Those two statements do not mean the same thing, and it's at best intellectually dishonest to suggest that they do.

I am sure you recognize that the words in these press releases are very carefully chosen. They don't talk about filing a BLA and that is huge. They do talk about the mono trial and that tells me the data is not good enough for pursuing a BLA for combo (or the economics of it no longer make any sense) and can only be helpful for mono recruiting. Everyone will need to make their own judgment on this but I think it is very reasonable to read between the lines that there is some issue with the data.

- You've been saying for as long as I can recall that Paulson is surely tapped out, the company is on the brink of a financial crisis... well, they raised $10mm (I know not all of that goes to the company) on Friday. Granted, it was not on favorable terms given the previous close and 10-day average. But they got $10mm. Doesn't strike me that they have issues getting money if they need it, and it probably just got easier since they now have met primary endpoints in a pivotal P3 and at least partially validated the science. Your suggestion that these investors would be calling lawyers is baffling.

CYDY was barely getting any money from PAulsen clients with each new round until this most recent one. That leads me to believe they must have given some pretty heavy hints that the data might be good in order to get the $10 million just before the critical data is released.
If that is true, the investors supplying the $10 million might well feel aggrieved and pursue legal action. Hardly seems like a baffling situation to me but each person has to draw their own conclusions and since we don't have all the needed info, people will reach different conclusions.

- On the topic of the money, I wasn't happy that they raised that much money at that price, but it was likely an insurance policy. They probably knew that they would be getting the results back, but didn't know conclusively which way they were going. Because it was a blinded trial. Better to have the money and not need it, although I would absolutely like to hear management explain this for themselves.

I agree with you on this. Those were horrible terms and to sell those shares and warrants just before the data release with the huge potential dilution coming from the conversion of the warrants just ahead. This management team is evidently not as confident in the future as many believe.

- You have no basis for saying that there won't be a BLA for combo. In fact, the company has stated in previous press releases (10/13, for example) and conference calls (10/19, for example) that this was the goal they were working towards for combo. Your inference based on a (disappointing, admittedly) omission of three letters from a PR is wild conjecture at best.

Here I just disagree straightforwardly with you and think the absence of BLA in the press release where key data is revealed is telling. The previous comments were made prior to the data. Since they did not mention it in the press release once the data was known seems like a very, very significant matter.

- 1.6mm shares were bought (and sold...) today. That's far more than the average volume this share has seen in it's recent run up, and the biggest day I can recall. Demand increased significantly, because meeting PE's partially de-risks the investment thesis. The only thing that this price action suggests is that 20mm shares were issued on Friday at a 33% discount to the previous close, and they came with warrants. That math is easy... folks sold the shares and didn't care too much about the price, and they keep the warrants.

That plus there may be some shorting by some who hold warrants and plan to convert them. By shorting on the data release bounce, they lock in a profit on the warrant conversion.

And before you accuse me of "not viewing this dispassionately", perhaps you should dispassionately review the statements above.

I didn't accuse anyone, just urged that attitude since I knew my comments would not be welcome by many.